Validation of GHI and DNI predictions from GFS and MACC model in the middle east

Luis Martin-Pomares, Jesus Polo, Daniel Astudillo, Dunia Bachour

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Production of electricity from solar energy is gaining a tremendous significance. The integration of all solar energy power to the electricity grid challenges new horizons. Mainly, the prediction of short-term power generation to optimise its management, avoid situations of load reduction and anticipate supplying problems. This paper presents a methodology to forecast hourly global horizontal solar irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) using global forecast system (GFS) model from NOAA and MACC model from ECMWF. Three clear sky models are tested to increase temporal resolution of GFS model from 3 hours to 1 hour. The forecasting horizon of the predictions is six days. The model has been validated using a ground radiometric station in Qatar with data from 2014 to 2015. The errors of the best model tested are 19% in terms of relative RMSD and -1.68% regarding relative bias for GHI. In the case of DNI, relative RMSD is 48.43%, and relative bias is -3.40%.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationISES Solar World Congress 2015, Conference Proceedings
PublisherInternational Solar Energy Society
Pages236-247
Number of pages12
ISBN (Electronic)9783981465952
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015
EventInternational Solar Energy Society, ISES Solar World Congress 2015, SWC 2015 - Daegu, Korea, Republic of
Duration: 8 Nov 201512 Nov 2015

Other

OtherInternational Solar Energy Society, ISES Solar World Congress 2015, SWC 2015
CountryKorea, Republic of
CityDaegu
Period8/11/1512/11/15

Fingerprint

Solar energy
Electricity
Power generation

Keywords

  • Aod forecasting
  • Atmospheric aerosols
  • Dni prediction
  • Solar radiation forecasting

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

Cite this

Martin-Pomares, L., Polo, J., Astudillo, D., & Bachour, D. (2015). Validation of GHI and DNI predictions from GFS and MACC model in the middle east. In ISES Solar World Congress 2015, Conference Proceedings (pp. 236-247). International Solar Energy Society. https://doi.org/10.18086/swc.2015.07.12

Validation of GHI and DNI predictions from GFS and MACC model in the middle east. / Martin-Pomares, Luis; Polo, Jesus; Astudillo, Daniel; Bachour, Dunia.

ISES Solar World Congress 2015, Conference Proceedings. International Solar Energy Society, 2015. p. 236-247.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Martin-Pomares, L, Polo, J, Astudillo, D & Bachour, D 2015, Validation of GHI and DNI predictions from GFS and MACC model in the middle east. in ISES Solar World Congress 2015, Conference Proceedings. International Solar Energy Society, pp. 236-247, International Solar Energy Society, ISES Solar World Congress 2015, SWC 2015, Daegu, Korea, Republic of, 8/11/15. https://doi.org/10.18086/swc.2015.07.12
Martin-Pomares L, Polo J, Astudillo D, Bachour D. Validation of GHI and DNI predictions from GFS and MACC model in the middle east. In ISES Solar World Congress 2015, Conference Proceedings. International Solar Energy Society. 2015. p. 236-247 https://doi.org/10.18086/swc.2015.07.12
Martin-Pomares, Luis ; Polo, Jesus ; Astudillo, Daniel ; Bachour, Dunia. / Validation of GHI and DNI predictions from GFS and MACC model in the middle east. ISES Solar World Congress 2015, Conference Proceedings. International Solar Energy Society, 2015. pp. 236-247
@inproceedings{c0b0ed9fbdd0494a804f9cd73031b24a,
title = "Validation of GHI and DNI predictions from GFS and MACC model in the middle east",
abstract = "Production of electricity from solar energy is gaining a tremendous significance. The integration of all solar energy power to the electricity grid challenges new horizons. Mainly, the prediction of short-term power generation to optimise its management, avoid situations of load reduction and anticipate supplying problems. This paper presents a methodology to forecast hourly global horizontal solar irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) using global forecast system (GFS) model from NOAA and MACC model from ECMWF. Three clear sky models are tested to increase temporal resolution of GFS model from 3 hours to 1 hour. The forecasting horizon of the predictions is six days. The model has been validated using a ground radiometric station in Qatar with data from 2014 to 2015. The errors of the best model tested are 19{\%} in terms of relative RMSD and -1.68{\%} regarding relative bias for GHI. In the case of DNI, relative RMSD is 48.43{\%}, and relative bias is -3.40{\%}.",
keywords = "Aod forecasting, Atmospheric aerosols, Dni prediction, Solar radiation forecasting",
author = "Luis Martin-Pomares and Jesus Polo and Daniel Astudillo and Dunia Bachour",
year = "2015",
doi = "10.18086/swc.2015.07.12",
language = "English",
pages = "236--247",
booktitle = "ISES Solar World Congress 2015, Conference Proceedings",
publisher = "International Solar Energy Society",

}

TY - GEN

T1 - Validation of GHI and DNI predictions from GFS and MACC model in the middle east

AU - Martin-Pomares, Luis

AU - Polo, Jesus

AU - Astudillo, Daniel

AU - Bachour, Dunia

PY - 2015

Y1 - 2015

N2 - Production of electricity from solar energy is gaining a tremendous significance. The integration of all solar energy power to the electricity grid challenges new horizons. Mainly, the prediction of short-term power generation to optimise its management, avoid situations of load reduction and anticipate supplying problems. This paper presents a methodology to forecast hourly global horizontal solar irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) using global forecast system (GFS) model from NOAA and MACC model from ECMWF. Three clear sky models are tested to increase temporal resolution of GFS model from 3 hours to 1 hour. The forecasting horizon of the predictions is six days. The model has been validated using a ground radiometric station in Qatar with data from 2014 to 2015. The errors of the best model tested are 19% in terms of relative RMSD and -1.68% regarding relative bias for GHI. In the case of DNI, relative RMSD is 48.43%, and relative bias is -3.40%.

AB - Production of electricity from solar energy is gaining a tremendous significance. The integration of all solar energy power to the electricity grid challenges new horizons. Mainly, the prediction of short-term power generation to optimise its management, avoid situations of load reduction and anticipate supplying problems. This paper presents a methodology to forecast hourly global horizontal solar irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) using global forecast system (GFS) model from NOAA and MACC model from ECMWF. Three clear sky models are tested to increase temporal resolution of GFS model from 3 hours to 1 hour. The forecasting horizon of the predictions is six days. The model has been validated using a ground radiometric station in Qatar with data from 2014 to 2015. The errors of the best model tested are 19% in terms of relative RMSD and -1.68% regarding relative bias for GHI. In the case of DNI, relative RMSD is 48.43%, and relative bias is -3.40%.

KW - Aod forecasting

KW - Atmospheric aerosols

KW - Dni prediction

KW - Solar radiation forecasting

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85016980552&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85016980552&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.18086/swc.2015.07.12

DO - 10.18086/swc.2015.07.12

M3 - Conference contribution

SP - 236

EP - 247

BT - ISES Solar World Congress 2015, Conference Proceedings

PB - International Solar Energy Society

ER -