Uncertainty analyses for calculated failure probabilities of piping welds

M. A. Khaleel, F. A. Simonen

Research output: Contribution to journalConference article

12 Citations (Scopus)


The objective of this paper is to quantify the uncertainties associated with inputs to probabilistic fracture mechanics calculations and with the resulting uncertainties in the calculated values of piping failure probabilities. All calculations used the pc-PRAISE computer code to address both leak and break probabilities. The first step was a sensitivity study which identified the uncertainties that have the greatest effect on the pc-PRAISE results. The second step was a quantitative uncertainty analysis that addressed the most critical parameters so identified. The failure mechanisms addressed were mechanical and thermal fatigue of stainless steel piping due to the presence of fabrication defects. Distributions of calculated failure probabilities are summarized in a format usable as input to higher level uncertainty analyses that combine the uncertainties in failure probabilities with uncertainties from probabilistic risk assessments that address the consequences of piping failures.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)77-90
Number of pages14
JournalAmerican Society of Mechanical Engineers, Pressure Vessels and Piping Division (Publication) PVP
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 1999
EventPressure Vessel and Piping Codes and Standards - 1999 (The ASME Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference) - Boston, MA, USA
Duration: 1 Aug 19995 Aug 1999


ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Mechanical Engineering

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