Technosocial predictive analytics for illicit nuclear trafficking

Antonio Sanfilippo, Scott Butner, Andrew Cowell, Angela Dalton, Jereme Haack, Sean Kreyling, Rick Riensche, Amanda White, Paul Whitney

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Illicit nuclear trafficking networks are a national security threat. These networks can directly lead to nuclear proliferation, as state or non-state actors attempt to identify and acquire nuclear weapons-related expertise, technologies, components, and materials. The ability to characterize and anticipate the key nodes, transit routes, and exchange mechanisms associated with these networks is essential to influence, disrupt, interdict or destroy the function of the networks and their processes. The complexities inherent to the characterization and anticipation of illicit nuclear trafficking networks requires that a variety of modeling and knowledge technologies be jointly harnessed to construct an effective analytical and decision making workflow in which specific case studies can be built in reasonable time and with realistic effort. In this paper, we explore a solution to this challenge that integrates evidentiary and dynamic modeling with knowledge management and analytical gaming, and demonstrate its application to a geopolitical region at risk.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Pages374-381
Number of pages8
Volume6589 LNCS
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2011
Externally publishedYes
Event4th International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction, SBP 2011 - College Park, MD
Duration: 29 Mar 201131 Mar 2011

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volume6589 LNCS
ISSN (Print)03029743
ISSN (Electronic)16113349

Other

Other4th International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction, SBP 2011
CityCollege Park, MD
Period29/3/1131/3/11

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Keywords

  • analytical gaming
  • decision making
  • Illicit trafficking
  • knowledge management
  • modeling
  • nuclear proliferation
  • predictive analytics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Science(all)
  • Theoretical Computer Science

Cite this

Sanfilippo, A., Butner, S., Cowell, A., Dalton, A., Haack, J., Kreyling, S., Riensche, R., White, A., & Whitney, P. (2011). Technosocial predictive analytics for illicit nuclear trafficking. In Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics) (Vol. 6589 LNCS, pp. 374-381). (Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics); Vol. 6589 LNCS). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-19656-0_51