Syphilis prevalence trends in adult women in 132 countries – estimations using the Spectrum Sexually Transmitted Infections model

Eline L. Korenromp, S. Guy Mahiané, Nico Nagelkerke, Melanie M. Taylor, Rebecca Williams, R. Matthew Chico, Carel Pretorius, Laith Aburaddad, Jane Rowley

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We estimated national-level trends in the prevalence of probable active syphilis in adult women using the Spectrum Sexually Transmitted Infections (STI) model to inform program planning, target-setting, and progress evaluation in STI control. The model fitted smoothed-splines polynomial regressions to data from antenatal clinic surveys and screening and representative household surveys, adjusted for diagnostic test performance and weighted by national coverage. Eligible countries had ≥1 data point from 2010 or later and ≥3 from 2000 or later from adult populations considered representative of the general female population (pregnant women or community-based studies). Between 2012 and 2016, the prevalence of probable active syphilis in women decreased in 54 (41%) of 132 eligible countries; this decrease was substantive (≥10% proportionally, ≥0.10% percentage-point absolute difference and non-overlapping 95% confidence intervals in 2012 and 2016) in 5 countries. Restricting eligible data to prevalence measurements of dual treponemal and non-treponemal testing limited estimates to 85 countries; of these, 45 countries (53%) showed a decrease. These standardized trend estimates highlight the need for increased investment in national syphilis surveillance and control efforts if the World Health Organization target of a 90% reduction in the incidence of syphilis between 2018 and 2030 is to be met.

Original languageEnglish
Article number11503
JournalScientific Reports
Volume8
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2018

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Syphilis
Sexually Transmitted Diseases
Infection Control
Routine Diagnostic Tests
Population
Pregnant Women
Confidence Intervals
Incidence
Surveys and Questionnaires

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

Cite this

Korenromp, E. L., Mahiané, S. G., Nagelkerke, N., Taylor, M. M., Williams, R., Chico, R. M., ... Rowley, J. (2018). Syphilis prevalence trends in adult women in 132 countries – estimations using the Spectrum Sexually Transmitted Infections model. Scientific Reports, 8(1), [11503]. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-29805-9

Syphilis prevalence trends in adult women in 132 countries – estimations using the Spectrum Sexually Transmitted Infections model. / Korenromp, Eline L.; Mahiané, S. Guy; Nagelkerke, Nico; Taylor, Melanie M.; Williams, Rebecca; Chico, R. Matthew; Pretorius, Carel; Aburaddad, Laith; Rowley, Jane.

In: Scientific Reports, Vol. 8, No. 1, 11503, 01.12.2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Korenromp, EL, Mahiané, SG, Nagelkerke, N, Taylor, MM, Williams, R, Chico, RM, Pretorius, C, Aburaddad, L & Rowley, J 2018, 'Syphilis prevalence trends in adult women in 132 countries – estimations using the Spectrum Sexually Transmitted Infections model', Scientific Reports, vol. 8, no. 1, 11503. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-29805-9
Korenromp, Eline L. ; Mahiané, S. Guy ; Nagelkerke, Nico ; Taylor, Melanie M. ; Williams, Rebecca ; Chico, R. Matthew ; Pretorius, Carel ; Aburaddad, Laith ; Rowley, Jane. / Syphilis prevalence trends in adult women in 132 countries – estimations using the Spectrum Sexually Transmitted Infections model. In: Scientific Reports. 2018 ; Vol. 8, No. 1.
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