Syphilis prevalence trends in adult women in 132 countries – estimations using the Spectrum Sexually Transmitted Infections model

Eline L. Korenromp, S. Guy Mahiané, Nico Nagelkerke, Melanie M. Taylor, Rebecca Williams, R. Matthew Chico, Carel Pretorius, Laith J. Abu-Raddad, Jane Rowley

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Abstract

We estimated national-level trends in the prevalence of probable active syphilis in adult women using the Spectrum Sexually Transmitted Infections (STI) model to inform program planning, target-setting, and progress evaluation in STI control. The model fitted smoothed-splines polynomial regressions to data from antenatal clinic surveys and screening and representative household surveys, adjusted for diagnostic test performance and weighted by national coverage. Eligible countries had ≥1 data point from 2010 or later and ≥3 from 2000 or later from adult populations considered representative of the general female population (pregnant women or community-based studies). Between 2012 and 2016, the prevalence of probable active syphilis in women decreased in 54 (41%) of 132 eligible countries; this decrease was substantive (≥10% proportionally, ≥0.10% percentage-point absolute difference and non-overlapping 95% confidence intervals in 2012 and 2016) in 5 countries. Restricting eligible data to prevalence measurements of dual treponemal and non-treponemal testing limited estimates to 85 countries; of these, 45 countries (53%) showed a decrease. These standardized trend estimates highlight the need for increased investment in national syphilis surveillance and control efforts if the World Health Organization target of a 90% reduction in the incidence of syphilis between 2018 and 2030 is to be met.

Original languageEnglish
Article number11503
JournalScientific Reports
Volume8
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2018
Externally publishedYes

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ASJC Scopus subject areas

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Cite this

Korenromp, E. L., Mahiané, S. G., Nagelkerke, N., Taylor, M. M., Williams, R., Chico, R. M., Pretorius, C., Abu-Raddad, L. J., & Rowley, J. (2018). Syphilis prevalence trends in adult women in 132 countries – estimations using the Spectrum Sexually Transmitted Infections model. Scientific Reports, 8(1), [11503]. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-29805-9