Short-term load forecasting based on load fluctuation rate

Rui Ma, Fei Jiang, Garng Morton Huang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The variability of load data curve is studied based on the historical data and the concepts of RLF (Rates of the Load Fluctuation) and the IFR (Impact factor of the Rate) are presented. The characteristics of power consumption in Texas and the similarity of rate change in same time period are summed up based on the analysis of ERCOT data. Based on the statistical analysis of historical RLF data, the experiential RLF value is figured out, according to which and combined with the real-time load data, the short-term load is corrected and accurately forecasted. It can be applied to the short-term forecasting system and the summarization of mid-long term variation law for regional electricity load.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)81-84
Number of pages4
JournalDianli Zidonghua Shebei/Electric Power Automation Equipment
Volume32
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 1 Feb 2012
Externally publishedYes

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Keywords

  • Data
  • Electric load forecasting
  • Electric power systems
  • ERCOT
  • Load growth rate
  • Statistics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Control and Systems Engineering
  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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