Prognostic factors in heat wave-related deaths

A meta-analysis

Abderrezak Bouchama, Mohammed Dehbi, Gamal Mohamed, Franziska Matthies, Mohamed Shoukri, Bettina Menne

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

220 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Although identifying individuals who are at increased risk of dying during heat waves and instituting protective measures represent an established strategy, the evidence supporting the components of this strategy and their strengths has yet to be evaluated. We conducted a meta-analysis of observational studies on risk and protective factors in heat wave-related deaths. Methods: Using the OVID interface, we searched Medline (1966-2006) and CINHAL (1982-2006) databases. The Web sites of the World Health Organization, Institut National de Veille Sanitaire, and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were also visited. The search terms included heat wave, heat stroke, heatstroke, sunstroke, and heat stress disorders. Eligible studies were case-control or cohort studies. Odds ratios (ORs) and information on study quality were abstracted by 2 investigators independently. Six case-control studies involving 1065 heat wave-related deaths were identified. Results: Being confined to bed (OR, 6.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.5-9.2), not leaving home daily (OR, 3.35; 95% CI, 1.6-6.9), and being unable to care for oneself (OR, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.8-4.8) were associated with the highest risk of death during heat waves. Preexisting psychiatric illness (OR, 3.61; 95% CI, 1.3-9.8) tripled the risk of death, followed by cardiovascular (OR, 2.48; 95% CI, 1.3-4.8) and pulmonary (OR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.2-2.1) illness. Working home air-conditioning (OR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.1-0.6), visiting cool environments (OR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.2-0.5), and increasing social contact (OR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.2-0.8) were strongly associated with better outcomes. Taking extra showers or baths (OR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.1-1.1) and using fans (OR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.4-1.1) were associated with a trend toward lower risk of death. Conclusion: The present study identified several prognostic factors that could help to detect those individuals who are at highest risk during heat waves and to provide a basis for potential risk-reducing interventions in the setting of heat waves.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2170-2176
Number of pages7
JournalArchives of Internal Medicine
Volume167
Issue number20
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 12 Nov 2007
Externally publishedYes

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Infrared Rays
Meta-Analysis
Odds Ratio
Confidence Intervals
Heat Stroke
Sunstroke
Heat Stress Disorders
Case-Control Studies
Air Conditioning
Preexisting Condition Coverage
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.)
Baths
Observational Studies
Psychiatry

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Internal Medicine

Cite this

Prognostic factors in heat wave-related deaths : A meta-analysis. / Bouchama, Abderrezak; Dehbi, Mohammed; Mohamed, Gamal; Matthies, Franziska; Shoukri, Mohamed; Menne, Bettina.

In: Archives of Internal Medicine, Vol. 167, No. 20, 12.11.2007, p. 2170-2176.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Bouchama, A, Dehbi, M, Mohamed, G, Matthies, F, Shoukri, M & Menne, B 2007, 'Prognostic factors in heat wave-related deaths: A meta-analysis', Archives of Internal Medicine, vol. 167, no. 20, pp. 2170-2176. https://doi.org/10.1001/archinte.167.20.ira70009
Bouchama, Abderrezak ; Dehbi, Mohammed ; Mohamed, Gamal ; Matthies, Franziska ; Shoukri, Mohamed ; Menne, Bettina. / Prognostic factors in heat wave-related deaths : A meta-analysis. In: Archives of Internal Medicine. 2007 ; Vol. 167, No. 20. pp. 2170-2176.
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abstract = "Background: Although identifying individuals who are at increased risk of dying during heat waves and instituting protective measures represent an established strategy, the evidence supporting the components of this strategy and their strengths has yet to be evaluated. We conducted a meta-analysis of observational studies on risk and protective factors in heat wave-related deaths. Methods: Using the OVID interface, we searched Medline (1966-2006) and CINHAL (1982-2006) databases. The Web sites of the World Health Organization, Institut National de Veille Sanitaire, and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were also visited. The search terms included heat wave, heat stroke, heatstroke, sunstroke, and heat stress disorders. Eligible studies were case-control or cohort studies. Odds ratios (ORs) and information on study quality were abstracted by 2 investigators independently. Six case-control studies involving 1065 heat wave-related deaths were identified. Results: Being confined to bed (OR, 6.44; 95{\%} confidence interval [CI], 4.5-9.2), not leaving home daily (OR, 3.35; 95{\%} CI, 1.6-6.9), and being unable to care for oneself (OR, 2.97; 95{\%} CI, 1.8-4.8) were associated with the highest risk of death during heat waves. Preexisting psychiatric illness (OR, 3.61; 95{\%} CI, 1.3-9.8) tripled the risk of death, followed by cardiovascular (OR, 2.48; 95{\%} CI, 1.3-4.8) and pulmonary (OR, 1.61; 95{\%} CI, 1.2-2.1) illness. Working home air-conditioning (OR, 0.23; 95{\%} CI, 0.1-0.6), visiting cool environments (OR, 0.34; 95{\%} CI, 0.2-0.5), and increasing social contact (OR, 0.40; 95{\%} CI, 0.2-0.8) were strongly associated with better outcomes. Taking extra showers or baths (OR, 0.32; 95{\%} CI, 0.1-1.1) and using fans (OR, 0.60; 95{\%} CI, 0.4-1.1) were associated with a trend toward lower risk of death. Conclusion: The present study identified several prognostic factors that could help to detect those individuals who are at highest risk during heat waves and to provide a basis for potential risk-reducing interventions in the setting of heat waves.",
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