Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: Mathematical modeling analyses

Susanne F. Awad, Martin O'flaherty, Katie G. El-Nahas, Abdulla O. Al-Hamaq, Julia A. Critchley, Laith J. Abu-Raddad

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Background: The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. Methods: A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario. Results: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8-33.7%, incidence by 8.4-38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1-13.2%. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-2.8%, incidence by 0.5-3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1-0.7%. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-6.9%, incidence by 0.5-7.9%, and related deaths by 0.2-2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3-9.2%, incidence by 4.2-11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9-5.2%. Conclusions: Major reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention.

Original languageEnglish
Article number20
JournalPopulation Health Metrics
Volume17
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 30 Dec 2019

Fingerprint

Qatar
Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus
Obesity
Smoking
Incidence
Exercise
Theoretical Models
Age Groups

Keywords

  • Mathematical modeling
  • Middle East and North Africa
  • Noncommunicable disease
  • Obesity
  • Prevention
  • Risk factors
  • type 2 diabetes mellitus

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Cite this

Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity : Mathematical modeling analyses. / Awad, Susanne F.; O'flaherty, Martin; El-Nahas, Katie G.; Al-Hamaq, Abdulla O.; Critchley, Julia A.; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.

In: Population Health Metrics, Vol. 17, No. 1, 20, 30.12.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{81838896f102460f9800b54d3750d9f2,
title = "Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: Mathematical modeling analyses",
abstract = "Background: The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. Methods: A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario. Results: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7{\%} in 2016 to 24.0{\%} in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10-50{\%}, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8-33.7{\%}, incidence by 8.4-38.9{\%}, and related deaths by 2.1-13.2{\%}. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10-50{\%}, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-2.8{\%}, incidence by 0.5-3.2{\%}, and related deaths by 0.1-0.7{\%}. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10-50{\%}, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-6.9{\%}, incidence by 0.5-7.9{\%}, and related deaths by 0.2-2.8{\%}. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25{\%} coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3-9.2{\%}, incidence by 4.2-11.5{\%}, and related deaths by 1.9-5.2{\%}. Conclusions: Major reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention.",
keywords = "Mathematical modeling, Middle East and North Africa, Noncommunicable disease, Obesity, Prevention, Risk factors, type 2 diabetes mellitus",
author = "Awad, {Susanne F.} and Martin O'flaherty and El-Nahas, {Katie G.} and Al-Hamaq, {Abdulla O.} and Critchley, {Julia A.} and Abu-Raddad, {Laith J.}",
year = "2019",
month = "12",
day = "30",
doi = "10.1186/s12963-019-0200-1",
language = "English",
volume = "17",
journal = "Population Health Metrics",
issn = "1478-7954",
publisher = "BioMed Central",
number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity

T2 - Mathematical modeling analyses

AU - Awad, Susanne F.

AU - O'flaherty, Martin

AU - El-Nahas, Katie G.

AU - Al-Hamaq, Abdulla O.

AU - Critchley, Julia A.

AU - Abu-Raddad, Laith J.

PY - 2019/12/30

Y1 - 2019/12/30

N2 - Background: The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. Methods: A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario. Results: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8-33.7%, incidence by 8.4-38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1-13.2%. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-2.8%, incidence by 0.5-3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1-0.7%. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-6.9%, incidence by 0.5-7.9%, and related deaths by 0.2-2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3-9.2%, incidence by 4.2-11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9-5.2%. Conclusions: Major reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention.

AB - Background: The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. Methods: A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario. Results: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8-33.7%, incidence by 8.4-38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1-13.2%. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-2.8%, incidence by 0.5-3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1-0.7%. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-6.9%, incidence by 0.5-7.9%, and related deaths by 0.2-2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3-9.2%, incidence by 4.2-11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9-5.2%. Conclusions: Major reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention.

KW - Mathematical modeling

KW - Middle East and North Africa

KW - Noncommunicable disease

KW - Obesity

KW - Prevention

KW - Risk factors

KW - type 2 diabetes mellitus

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85077301499&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85077301499&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1186/s12963-019-0200-1

DO - 10.1186/s12963-019-0200-1

M3 - Article

C2 - 31888689

AN - SCOPUS:85077301499

VL - 17

JO - Population Health Metrics

JF - Population Health Metrics

SN - 1478-7954

IS - 1

M1 - 20

ER -