Predicting downloads of acadamic articles to inform online content management

Daniel M. Coughlin, Bernard Jansen

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

We examine 1,510 journals from a major research university library, representing more than 40% of the university's annual financial cost for electronic resources at the time of the study. In this research, we utilize a web analytics approach for the creation of a linear regression model to predict usage among these journals. We categorize metrics into global (e.g., journal impact factor, Eigenfactor, etc.) that are journal focused and local (e.g., local downloads, local citation rate, etc.) classes that are institution focused. By means of 275 journals for a training set, our analysis shows that a combination of both global and local metrics creates the strongest model for predicting full-text downloads. These research results establish the value in better informed purchasing decisions by creating local metrics versus relying solely on global metrics for the evaluation of library content collections. The linear regression model has an accuracy of more than 80% in predicting downloads for greater than 80% of the 1,235 journals in our test set.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2015 6th International Conference on Information and Communication Systems, ICICS 2015
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages200-205
Number of pages6
ISBN (Print)9781479973491
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 6 May 2015
Event6th International Conference on Information and Communication Systems, ICICS 2015 - Amman, Jordan
Duration: 7 Apr 20159 Apr 2015

Other

Other6th International Conference on Information and Communication Systems, ICICS 2015
CountryJordan
CityAmman
Period7/4/159/4/15

Fingerprint

Linear regression
Purchasing
Costs

Keywords

  • academic articles
  • citations
  • citing
  • referencing

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Information Systems
  • Signal Processing

Cite this

Coughlin, D. M., & Jansen, B. (2015). Predicting downloads of acadamic articles to inform online content management. In 2015 6th International Conference on Information and Communication Systems, ICICS 2015 (pp. 200-205). [7103227] Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1109/IACS.2015.7103227

Predicting downloads of acadamic articles to inform online content management. / Coughlin, Daniel M.; Jansen, Bernard.

2015 6th International Conference on Information and Communication Systems, ICICS 2015. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2015. p. 200-205 7103227.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Coughlin, DM & Jansen, B 2015, Predicting downloads of acadamic articles to inform online content management. in 2015 6th International Conference on Information and Communication Systems, ICICS 2015., 7103227, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., pp. 200-205, 6th International Conference on Information and Communication Systems, ICICS 2015, Amman, Jordan, 7/4/15. https://doi.org/10.1109/IACS.2015.7103227
Coughlin DM, Jansen B. Predicting downloads of acadamic articles to inform online content management. In 2015 6th International Conference on Information and Communication Systems, ICICS 2015. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. 2015. p. 200-205. 7103227 https://doi.org/10.1109/IACS.2015.7103227
Coughlin, Daniel M. ; Jansen, Bernard. / Predicting downloads of acadamic articles to inform online content management. 2015 6th International Conference on Information and Communication Systems, ICICS 2015. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2015. pp. 200-205
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