Model for predicting vessel failure probabilities including the effects of service inspection and flaw sizing errors

M. A. Khaleel, F. A. Simonen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A numerical approach has been developed to predict the probability that a fabrication flaw in a reactor pressure vessel will extend by fatigue crack growth mechanisms and become a through-wall flaw. The fracture mechanics model treats the size of the flaw, the location of the flaw, and the parameters governing the fatigue crack growth rates as stochastic variables that are described by histograms that represent their statistical distributions. A latin hypercube approach forms the basis for efficient numerical calculations of vessel failure probabilities, in particular for those cases having very low probabilities that are not readily calculated by use of more conventional Monte Carlo simulations. A second aspect of the vessel failure model evaluates the benefits of in-service inspections at prescribed inspection time intervals and with prescribed nondestructive examination capabilities (probability of detection as a function of flaw size). A third aspect of the paper evaluates flaw sizing accuracy, and the impacts of flaw acceptance criteria. For representative values of flaw detection probability, flaw sizing errors, and flaw acceptance criteria, detection capability is the most limiting factor with regard to the ability of the in-service inspections to reduce leak probabilities. However, gross sizing errors or significant relaxations of current flaw acceptance standards could negate the benefits of outstanding probability of detection capabilities.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)353-369
Number of pages17
JournalNuclear Engineering and Design
Volume200
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Sep 2000
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

sizing
vessels
inspection
vessel
Inspection
Defects
defects
acceptability
fatigue
crack
Fatigue crack propagation
fracture mechanics
statistical distribution
cracks
histogram
effect
inspection service
limiting factor
nondestructive tests
pressure vessels

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Nuclear Energy and Engineering
  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

Cite this

Model for predicting vessel failure probabilities including the effects of service inspection and flaw sizing errors. / Khaleel, M. A.; Simonen, F. A.

In: Nuclear Engineering and Design, Vol. 200, No. 3, 01.09.2000, p. 353-369.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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