Mater certa est, pater numquam: What can facebook advertising data tell us about male fertility rates?

Francesco Rampazzo, Emilio Zagheni, Ingmar Weber, Maria Rita Testa, Francesco Billari

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In many developing countries, timely and accurate information about birth rates and other demographic indicators is still lacking, especially for male fertility rates. Using anonymous and aggregate data from Facebook's Advertising Platform, we produce global estimates of the Mean Age at Childbearing (MAC), a key indicator of fertility postponement. Our analysis indicates that fertility measures based on Facebook data are highly correlated with conventional indicators based on traditional data, for those countries for which we have statistics. For instance, the correlation of the MAC computed using Facebook and United Nations data is 0.47 (p = 4.02e − 08) and 0.79 (p = 2.2e − 15) for female and male respectively. Out of sample validation for a simple regression model indicates that the mean absolute percentage error is 2.3%. We use the linear model and Facebook data to produce estimates of the male MAC for countries for which we do not have data.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication12th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media, ICWSM 2018
PublisherAAAI press
Pages672-675
Number of pages4
ISBN (Electronic)9781577357988
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2017
Event12th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media, ICWSM 2018 - Palo Alto, United States
Duration: 25 Jun 201828 Jun 2018

Other

Other12th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media, ICWSM 2018
CountryUnited States
CityPalo Alto
Period25/6/1828/6/18

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ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Networks and Communications

Cite this

Rampazzo, F., Zagheni, E., Weber, I., Testa, M. R., & Billari, F. (2017). Mater certa est, pater numquam: What can facebook advertising data tell us about male fertility rates? In 12th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media, ICWSM 2018 (pp. 672-675). AAAI press.