Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015

a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Haidong Wang, Mohsen Naghavi, Christine Allen, Ryan M. Barber, Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, Austin Carter, Daniel C. Casey, Fiona J. Charlson, Alan Zian Chen, Matthew M. Coates, Megan Coggeshall, Lalit Dandona, Daniel J. Dicker, Holly E. Erskine, Alize J. Ferrari, Christina Fitzmaurice, Kyle Foreman, Mohammad H. Forouzanfar, Maya S. Fraser, Nancy Fullman & 749 others Peter W. Gething, Ellen M. Goldberg, Nicholas Graetz, Juanita A. Haagsma, Simon I. Hay, Chantal Huynh, Catherine O. Johnson, Nicholas J. Kassebaum, Yohannes Kinfu, Xie Rachel Kulikoff, Michael Kutz, Hmwe H. Kyu, Heidi J. Larson, Janni Leung, Xiaofeng Liang, Stephen S. Lim, Margaret Lind, Rafael Lozano, Neal Marquez, George A. Mensah, Joe Mikesell, Ali H. Mokdad, Meghan D. Mooney, Grant Nguyen, Elaine Nsoesie, David M. Pigott, Christine Pinho, Gregory A. Roth, Joshua A. Salomon, Logan Sandar, Naris Silpakit, Amber Sligar, Reed J.D. Sorensen, Jeffrey Stanaway, Caitlyn Steiner, Stephanie Teeple, Bernadette A. Thomas, Christopher Troeger, Amelia VanderZanden, Stein Emil Vollset, Valentine Wanga, Harvey A. Whiteford, Timothy Wolock, Leo Zoeckler, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Kaja M. Abbas, Foad Abd-Allah, Semaw Ferede Abera, Daisy M.X. Abreu, Laith J. Abu-Raddad, Gebre Yitayih Abyu, Tom Achoki, Ademola Lukman Adelekan, Zanfina Ademi, Arsène Kouablan Adou, José C. Adsuar, Kossivi Agbelenko Afanvi, Ashkan Afshin, Emilie Elisabet Agardh, Arnav Agarwal, Anurag Agrawal, Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri, Oluremi N. Ajala, Ali Shafqat Akanda, Rufus Olusola Akinyemi, Tomi F. Akinyemiju, Nadia Akseer, Faris Hasan Al Lami, Samer Alabed, Ziyad Al-Aly, Khurshid Alam, Noore K.M. Alam, Deena Alasfoor, Saleh Fahed Aldhahri, Robert William Aldridge, Miguel Angel Alegretti, Alicia V. Aleman, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Lily T. Alexander, Samia Alhabib, Raghib Ali, Ala'a Alkerwi, François Alla, Peter Allebeck, Rajaa Al-Raddadi, Ubai Alsharif, Khalid A. Altirkawi, Elena Alvarez Martin, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Azmeraw T. Amare, Adeladza Kofi Amegah, Emmanuel A. Ameh, Heresh Amini, Walid Ammar, Stephen Marc Amrock, Hjalte H. Andersen, Benjamin O. Anderson, Gregory M. Anderson, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Atsede Fantahun Aregay, Johan Ärnlöv, Valentina S.Arsic Arsenijevic, Al Artaman, Hamid Asayesh, Rana Jawad Asghar, Suleman Atique, Euripide Frinel G.Arthur Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Peter Azzopardi, Umar Bacha, Alaa Badawi, Maria C. Bahit, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Amitava Banerjee, Aleksandra Barac, Suzanne L. Barker-Collo, Till Bärnighausen, Lars Barregard, Lope H. Barrero, Arindam Basu, Sanjay Basu, Yibeltal Tebekaw Bayou, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi, Justin Beardsley, Neeraj Bedi, Ettore Beghi, Haileeyesus Adamu Belay, Brent Bell, Michelle L. Bell, Aminu K. Bello, Derrick A. Bennett, Isabela M. Bensenor, Adugnaw Berhane, Eduardo Bernabé, Balem Demtsu Betsu, Addisu Shunu Beyene, Neeraj Bhala, Ashish Bhalla, Sibhatu Biadgilign, Boris Bikbov, Aref A.Bin Abdulhak, Brian J. Biroscak, Stan Biryukov, Espen Bjertness, Jed D. Blore, Christopher D. Blosser, Megan A. Bohensky, Rohan Borschmann, Dipan Bose, Rupert R.A. Bourne, Michael Brainin, Carol E.G. Brayne, Alexandra Brazinova, Nicholas J.K. Breitborde, Hermann Brenner, Jerry D. Brewer, Alexandria Brown, Jonathan Brown, Traolach S. Brugha, Geoffrey Colin Buckle, Zahid A. Butt, Bianca Calabria, Ismael Ricardo Campos-Nonato, Julio Cesar Campuzano, Jonathan R. Carapetis, Rosario Cárdenas, David O. Carpenter, Laith Aburaddad, Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, Ferrán Catalá-López, Fiorella Cavalleri, Kelly Cercy, Jorge Cerda, Wanqing Chen, Adrienne Chew, Peggy Pei Chia Chiang, Mirriam Chibalabala, Chioma Ezinne Chibueze, Odgerel Chimed-Ochir, Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Jee Young Jasmine Choi, Rajiv Chowdhury, Hanne Christensen, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Liliana G. Ciobanu, Massimo Cirillo, Aaron J. Cohen, Valentina Colistro, Mercedes Colomar, Samantha M. Colquhoun, Cyrus Cooper, Leslie Trumbull Cooper, Monica Cortinovis, Benjamin C. Cowie, John A. Crump, James Damsere-Derry, Hadi Danawi, Rakhi Dandona, Farah Daoud, Sarah C. Darby, Paul I. Dargan, José das Neves, Gail Davey, Adrian C. Davis, Dragos V. Davitoiu, E. Filipa de Castro, Pieter de Jager, Diego De Leo, Louisa Degenhardt, Robert P. Dellavalle, Kebede Deribe, Amare Deribew, Samath D. Dharmaratne, Preet K. Dhillon, Cesar Diaz-Torné, Eric L. Ding, Kadine Priscila Bender dos Santos, Edem Dossou, Tim R. Driscoll, Leilei Duan, Manisha Dubey, Bruce Bartholow Duncan, Richard G. Ellenbogen, Christian Lycke Ellingsen, Iqbal Elyazar, Aman Yesuf Endries, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Babak Eshrati, Alireza Esteghamati, Kara Estep, Imad D.A. Faghmous, Saman Fahimi, Emerito Jose Aquino Faraon, Talha A. Farid, Carla Sofia e.Sa Farinha, André Faro, Maryam S. Farvid, Farshad Farzadfar, Valery L. Feigin, Seyed Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Jefferson G. Fernandes, Joao C. Fernandes, Florian Fischer, Joseph R.A. Fitchett, Abraham Flaxman, Nataliya Foigt, F. Gerry R. Fowkes, Elisabeth Barboza Franca, Richard C. Franklin, Joseph Friedman, Joseph Frostad, Thomas Fürst, Neal D. Futran, Seana L. Gall, Ketevan Gambashidze, Amiran Gamkrelidze, Parthasarathi Ganguly, Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé, Teshome Gebre, Tsegaye Tsewelde Gebrehiwot, Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin, Alemseged Aregay Gebru, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Bradford D. Gessner, Aloke Gopal Ghoshal, Katherine B. Gibney, Richard F. Gillum, Stuart Gilmour, Ababi Zergaw Giref, Maurice Giroud, Melkamu Dedefo Gishu, Giorgia Giussani, Elizabeth Glaser, William W. Godwin, Hector Gomez-Dantes, Philimon Gona, Amador Goodridge, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Richard A. Gosselin, Carolyn C. Gotay, Atsushi Goto, Hebe N. Gouda, Felix Greaves, Harish Chander Gugnani, Rahul Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Vipin Gupta, Reyna A. Gutiérrez, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Demewoz Haile, Alemayehu Desalegne Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Yara A. Halasa, Randah Ribhi Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Jamie Hancock, Alexis J. Handal, Graeme J. Hankey, Yuantao Hao, Hilda L. Harb, Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan, Josep Maria Haro, Rasmus Havmoeller, Susan R. Heckbert, Ileana Beatriz Heredia-Pi, Pouria Heydarpour, Henk B.M. Hilderink, Hans W. Hoek, Robert S. Hogg, Masako Horino, Nobuyuki Horita, H. Dean Hosgood, Peter J. Hotez, Damian G. Hoy, Mohamed Hsairi, Aung Soe Htet, Maung Maung Than Htike, Guoqing Hu, Cheng Huang, Hsiang Huang, Laetitia Huiart, Abdullatif Husseini, Inge Huybrechts, Grace Huynh, Kim Moesgaard Iburg, Kaire Innos, Manami Inoue, Veena J. Iyer, Troy A. Jacobs, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Nader Jahanmehr, Mihajlo B. Jakovljevic, Peter James, Mehdi Javanbakht, Sudha P. Jayaraman, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Paul N. Jensen, Vivekanand Jha, Guohong Jiang, Ying Jiang, Tariku Jibat, Aida Jimenez-Corona, Jost B. Jonas, Tushar Kant Joshi, Zubair Kabir, Ritul Kamal, Haidong Kan, Surya Kant, André Karch, Corine Kakizi Karema, Chante Karimkhani, Dimitris Karletsos, Ganesan Karthikeyan, Amir Kasaeian, Marzieh Katibeh, Anil Kaul, Norito Kawakami, Jeanne Françoise Kayibanda, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Laura Kemmer, Andrew Haddon Kemp, Andre Pascal Kengne, Andre Keren, Maia Kereselidze, Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran, Yousef Saleh Khader, Ibrahim A. Khalil, Abdur Rahman Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Young Ho Khang, Sahil Khera, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer Khoja, Christian Kieling, Daniel Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Brett M. Kissela, Niranjan Kissoon, Luke D. Knibbs, Ann Kristin Knudsen, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Dhaval Kolte, Jacek A. Kopec, Soewarta Kosen, Parvaiz A. Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Norun Hjertager Krog, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Burcu Kucuk Bicer, Andreas A. Kudom, Ernst J. Kuipers, Veena S. Kulkarni, G. Anil Kumar, Gene F. Kwan, Aparna Lal, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Ratilal Lalloo, Hilton Lam, Jennifer O. Lam, Sinead M. Langan, Van C. Lansingh, Anders Larsson, Dennis Odai Laryea, Asma Abdul Latif, Alicia Elena Beatriz Lawrynowicz, James Leigh, Miriam Levi, Yongmei Li, M. Patrice Lindsay, Steven E. Lipshultz, Patrick Y. Liu, Shiwei Liu, Yang Liu, Loon Tzian Lo, Giancarlo Logroscino, Paulo A. Lotufo, Robyn M. Lucas, Raimundas Lunevicius, Ronan A. Lyons, Stefan Ma, Vasco Manuel Pedro Machado, Mark T. Mackay, Jennifer H. MacLachlan, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Mohammed Magdy, Abd El Razek, Marek Majdan, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Wondimu Ayele Ayele Manamo, John Mandisarisa, Srikanth Mangalam, Chabila C. Mapoma, Wagner Marcenes, David Joel Margolis, Gerard Robert Martin, Jose Martinez-Raga, Melvin Barrientos Marzan, Felix Masiye, Amanda J. Mason-Jones, João Massano, Richard Matzopoulos, Bongani M. Mayosi, Stephen Theodore McGarvey, John J. McGrath, Martin McKee, Brian J. McMahon, Peter A. Meaney, Alem Mehari, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez, Alemayehu B. Mekonnen, Yohannes Adama Melaku, Peter Memiah, Ziad A. Memish, Walter Mendoza, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Francis Apolinary Mhimbira, Renata Micha, Ted R. Miller, Mojde Mirarefin, Awoke Misganaw, Charles N. Mock, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Alireza Mohammadi, Shafiu Mohammed, Viswanathan Mohan, Glen Liddell D. Mola, Lorenzo Monasta, Julio Cesar Montañez Hernandez, Pablo Montero, Marcella Montico, Thomas J. Montine, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Lidia Morawska, Katherine Morgan, Rintaro Mori, Dariush Mozaffarian, Ulrich O. Mueller, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana Murthy, Srinivas Murthy, Kamarul Imran Musa, Jean B. Nachega, Gabriele Nagel, Kovin S. Naidoo, Nitish Naik, Luigi Naldi, Vinay Nangia, Denis Nash, Chakib Nejjari, Subas Neupane, Charles R. Newton, John N. Newton, Marie Ng, Frida Namnyak Ngalesoni, Jean de Dieu Ngirabega, Quyen Le Nguyen, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Patrick Martial Nkamedjie Pete, Marika Nomura, Ole F. Norheim, Paul E. Norman, Bo Norrving, Luke Nyakarahuka, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Foluke Adetola Ojelabi, Pedro R. Olivares, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, John Nelson Opio, Eyal Oren, Alberto Ortiz, Majdi Osman, Erika Ota, Raziye Ozdemir, Mahesh PA, Jeyaraj D. Pandian, Puspa Raj Pant, Christina Papachristou, Eun Kee Park, Jae Hyun Park, Charles D. Parry, Mahboubeh Parsaeian, Angel J.Paternina Caicedo, Scott B. Patten, George C. Patton, Vinod K. Paul, Neil Pearce, João Mário Pedro, Ljiljana Pejin Stokic, David M. Pereira, Norberto Perico, Konrad Pesudovs, Max Petzold, Michael Robert Phillips, Frédéric B. Piel, Julian David Pillay, Dietrich Plass, James A. Platts-Mills, Suzanne Polinder, C. Arden Pope, Svetlana Popova, Richie G. Poulton, Farshad Pourmalek, Dorairaj Prabhakaran, Mostafa Qorbani, Justice Quame-Amaglo, D. Alex Quistberg, Anwar Rafay, Kazem Rahimi, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Mahfuzar Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Sajjad Ur Rahman, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Zhale Rajavi, Sasa Rajsic, Murugesan Raju, Ivo Rakovac, Saleem M. Rana, Chhabi L. Ranabhat, Thara Rangaswamy, Puja Rao, Sowmya R. Rao, Amany H. Refaat, Jürgen Rehm, Marissa B. Reitsma, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Serge Resnikoff, Antonio L. Ribeiro, Stefano Ricci, Maria Jesus Rios Blancas, Bayard Roberts, Anna Roca, David Rojas-Rueda, Luca Ronfani, Gholamreza Roshandel, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Ambuj Roy, Nawal K. 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Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography–year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4–61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5–72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7–17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5–70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6–5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8–18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6–16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9–14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1–44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7–51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8–34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3–37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000–183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000–532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1459-1544
Number of pages86
JournalThe Lancet
Volume388
Issue number10053
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 8 Oct 2016

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Life Expectancy
Cause of Death
Mortality
Population Growth
Demography
Geography
Global Burden of Disease
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
Africa South of the Sahara
Mothers
HIV
Violence
Respiratory Tract Infections
Malaria
Uncertainty
Myocardial Ischemia
Infant, Newborn, Diseases
Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever
Syria
Pneumococcal Pneumonia

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. / Wang, Haidong; Naghavi, Mohsen; Allen, Christine; Barber, Ryan M.; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Carter, Austin; Casey, Daniel C.; Charlson, Fiona J.; Chen, Alan Zian; Coates, Matthew M.; Coggeshall, Megan; Dandona, Lalit; Dicker, Daniel J.; Erskine, Holly E.; Ferrari, Alize J.; Fitzmaurice, Christina; Foreman, Kyle; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Fraser, Maya S.; Fullman, Nancy; Gething, Peter W.; Goldberg, Ellen M.; Graetz, Nicholas; Haagsma, Juanita A.; Hay, Simon I.; Huynh, Chantal; Johnson, Catherine O.; Kassebaum, Nicholas J.; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kulikoff, Xie Rachel; Kutz, Michael; Kyu, Hmwe H.; Larson, Heidi J.; Leung, Janni; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S.; Lind, Margaret; Lozano, Rafael; Marquez, Neal; Mensah, George A.; Mikesell, Joe; Mokdad, Ali H.; Mooney, Meghan D.; Nguyen, Grant; Nsoesie, Elaine; Pigott, David M.; Pinho, Christine; Roth, Gregory A.; Salomon, Joshua A.; Sandar, Logan; Silpakit, Naris; Sligar, Amber; Sorensen, Reed J.D.; Stanaway, Jeffrey; Steiner, Caitlyn; Teeple, Stephanie; Thomas, Bernadette A.; Troeger, Christopher; VanderZanden, Amelia; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wanga, Valentine; Whiteford, Harvey A.; Wolock, Timothy; Zoeckler, Leo; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abreu, Daisy M.X.; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola Lukman; Ademi, Zanfina; Adou, Arsène Kouablan; Adsuar, José C.; Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko; Afshin, Ashkan; Agardh, Emilie Elisabet; Agarwal, Arnav; Agrawal, Anurag; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad; Ajala, Oluremi N.; Akanda, Ali Shafqat; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola; Akinyemiju, Tomi F.; Akseer, Nadia; Lami, Faris Hasan Al; Alabed, Samer; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore K.M.; Alasfoor, Deena; Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed; Aldridge, Robert William; Alegretti, Miguel Angel; Aleman, Alicia V.; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Alexander, Lily T.; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alla, François; Allebeck, Peter; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa; Alsharif, Ubai; Altirkawi, Khalid A.; Martin, Elena Alvarez; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Amegah, Adeladza Kofi; Ameh, Emmanuel A.; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Amrock, Stephen Marc; Andersen, Hjalte H.; Anderson, Benjamin O.; Anderson, Gregory M.; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.; Aregay, Atsede Fantahun; Ärnlöv, Johan; Arsenijevic, Valentina S.Arsic; Artaman, Al; Asayesh, Hamid; Asghar, Rana Jawad; Atique, Suleman; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G.Arthur; Awasthi, Ashish; Azzopardi, Peter; Bacha, Umar; Badawi, Alaa; Bahit, Maria C.; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Banerjee, Amitava; Barac, Aleksandra; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L.; Bärnighausen, Till; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H.; Basu, Arindam; Basu, Sanjay; Bayou, Yibeltal Tebekaw; Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Beghi, Ettore; Belay, Haileeyesus Adamu; Bell, Brent; Bell, Michelle L.; Bello, Aminu K.; Bennett, Derrick A.; Bensenor, Isabela M.; Berhane, Adugnaw; Bernabé, Eduardo; Betsu, Balem Demtsu; Beyene, Addisu Shunu; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhalla, Ashish; Biadgilign, Sibhatu; Bikbov, Boris; Abdulhak, Aref A.Bin; Biroscak, Brian J.; Biryukov, Stan; Bjertness, Espen; Blore, Jed D.; Blosser, Christopher D.; Bohensky, Megan A.; Borschmann, Rohan; Bose, Dipan; Bourne, Rupert R.A.; Brainin, Michael; Brayne, Carol E.G.; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas J.K.; Brenner, Hermann; Brewer, Jerry D.; Brown, Alexandria; Brown, Jonathan; Brugha, Traolach S.; Buckle, Geoffrey Colin; Butt, Zahid A.; Calabria, Bianca; Campos-Nonato, Ismael Ricardo; Campuzano, Julio Cesar; Carapetis, Jonathan R.; Cárdenas, Rosario; Carpenter, David O.; Aburaddad, Laith; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A.; Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Cavalleri, Fiorella; Cercy, Kelly; Cerda, Jorge; Chen, Wanqing; Chew, Adrienne; Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia; Chibalabala, Mirriam; Chibueze, Chioma Ezinne; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe; Choi, Jee Young Jasmine; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christensen, Hanne; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas; Ciobanu, Liliana G.; Cirillo, Massimo; Cohen, Aaron J.; Colistro, Valentina; Colomar, Mercedes; Colquhoun, Samantha M.; Cooper, Cyrus; Cooper, Leslie Trumbull; Cortinovis, Monica; Cowie, Benjamin C.; Crump, John A.; Damsere-Derry, James; Danawi, Hadi; Dandona, Rakhi; Daoud, Farah; Darby, Sarah C.; Dargan, Paul I.; das Neves, José; Davey, Gail; Davis, Adrian C.; Davitoiu, Dragos V.; de Castro, E. Filipa; de Jager, Pieter; Leo, Diego De; Degenhardt, Louisa; Dellavalle, Robert P.; Deribe, Kebede; Deribew, Amare; Dharmaratne, Samath D.; Dhillon, Preet K.; Diaz-Torné, Cesar; Ding, Eric L.; dos Santos, Kadine Priscila Bender; Dossou, Edem; Driscoll, Tim R.; Duan, Leilei; Dubey, Manisha; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow; Ellenbogen, Richard G.; Ellingsen, Christian Lycke; Elyazar, Iqbal; Endries, Aman Yesuf; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Estep, Kara; Faghmous, Imad D.A.; Fahimi, Saman; Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino; Farid, Talha A.; Farinha, Carla Sofia e.Sa; Faro, André; Farvid, Maryam S.; Farzadfar, Farshad; Feigin, Valery L.; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad; Fernandes, Jefferson G.; Fernandes, Joao C.; Fischer, Florian; Fitchett, Joseph R.A.; Flaxman, Abraham; Foigt, Nataliya; Fowkes, F. Gerry R.; Franca, Elisabeth Barboza; Franklin, Richard C.; Friedman, Joseph; Frostad, Joseph; Fürst, Thomas; Futran, Neal D.; Gall, Seana L.; Gambashidze, Ketevan; Gamkrelidze, Amiran; Ganguly, Parthasarathi; Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho; Gebre, Teshome; Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tsewelde; Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay; Gebru, Alemseged Aregay; Geleijnse, Johanna M.; Gessner, Bradford D.; Ghoshal, Aloke Gopal; Gibney, Katherine B.; Gillum, Richard F.; Gilmour, Stuart; Giref, Ababi Zergaw; Giroud, Maurice; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo; Giussani, Giorgia; Glaser, Elizabeth; Godwin, William W.; Gomez-Dantes, Hector; Gona, Philimon; Goodridge, Amador; Gopalani, Sameer Vali; Gosselin, Richard A.; Gotay, Carolyn C.; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N.; Greaves, Felix; Gugnani, Harish Chander; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gupta, Vipin; Gutiérrez, Reyna A.; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Haile, Demewoz; Hailu, Alemayehu Desalegne; Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa; Halasa, Yara A.; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hamidi, Samer; Hancock, Jamie; Handal, Alexis J.; Hankey, Graeme J.; Hao, Yuantao; Harb, Hilda L.; Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai; Haro, Josep Maria; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Heckbert, Susan R.; Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz; Heydarpour, Pouria; Hilderink, Henk B.M.; Hoek, Hans W.; Hogg, Robert S.; Horino, Masako; Horita, Nobuyuki; Hosgood, H. Dean; Hotez, Peter J.; Hoy, Damian G.; Hsairi, Mohamed; Htet, Aung Soe; Htike, Maung Maung Than; Hu, Guoqing; Huang, Cheng; Huang, Hsiang; Huiart, Laetitia; Husseini, Abdullatif; Huybrechts, Inge; Huynh, Grace; Iburg, Kim Moesgaard; Innos, Kaire; Inoue, Manami; Iyer, Veena J.; Jacobs, Troy A.; Jacobsen, Kathryn H.; Jahanmehr, Nader; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B.; James, Peter; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Jayaraman, Sudha P.; Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jensen, Paul N.; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Guohong; Jiang, Ying; Jibat, Tariku; Jimenez-Corona, Aida; Jonas, Jost B.; Joshi, Tushar Kant; Kabir, Zubair; Kamal, Ritul; Kan, Haidong; Kant, Surya; Karch, André; Karema, Corine Kakizi; Karimkhani, Chante; Karletsos, Dimitris; Karthikeyan, Ganesan; Kasaeian, Amir; Katibeh, Marzieh; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kayibanda, Jeanne Françoise; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga; Kemmer, Laura; Kemp, Andrew Haddon; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Keren, Andre; Kereselidze, Maia; Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khalil, Ibrahim A.; Khan, Abdur Rahman; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khang, Young Ho; Khera, Sahil; Khoja, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Yun Jin; Kissela, Brett M.; Kissoon, Niranjan; Knibbs, Luke D.; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kolte, Dhaval; Kopec, Jacek A.; Kosen, Soewarta; Koul, Parvaiz A.; Koyanagi, Ai; Krog, Norun Hjertager; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk; Kudom, Andreas A.; Kuipers, Ernst J.; Kulkarni, Veena S.; Kumar, G. Anil; Kwan, Gene F.; Lal, Aparna; Lal, Dharmesh Kumar; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lam, Hilton; Lam, Jennifer O.; Langan, Sinead M.; Lansingh, Van C.; Larsson, Anders; Laryea, Dennis Odai; Latif, Asma Abdul; Lawrynowicz, Alicia Elena Beatriz; Leigh, James; Levi, Miriam; Li, Yongmei; Lindsay, M. Patrice; Lipshultz, Steven E.; Liu, Patrick Y.; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lo, Loon Tzian; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Lotufo, Paulo A.; Lucas, Robyn M.; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Lyons, Ronan A.; Ma, Stefan; Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro; Mackay, Mark T.; MacLachlan, Jennifer H.; Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd El; Magdy, Mohammed; Razek, Abd El; Majdan, Marek; Majeed, Azeem; Malekzadeh, Reza; Manamo, Wondimu Ayele Ayele; Mandisarisa, John; Mangalam, Srikanth; Mapoma, Chabila C.; Marcenes, Wagner; Margolis, David Joel; Martin, Gerard Robert; Martinez-Raga, Jose; Marzan, Melvin Barrientos; Masiye, Felix; Mason-Jones, Amanda J.; Massano, João; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mayosi, Bongani M.; McGarvey, Stephen Theodore; McGrath, John J.; McKee, Martin; McMahon, Brian J.; Meaney, Peter A.; Mehari, Alem; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Mekonnen, Alemayehu B.; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Memiah, Peter; Memish, Ziad A.; Mendoza, Walter; Meretoja, Atte; Meretoja, Tuomo J.; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Micha, Renata; Miller, Ted R.; Mirarefin, Mojde; Misganaw, Awoke; Mock, Charles N.; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin; Mohammadi, Alireza; Mohammed, Shafiu; Mohan, Viswanathan; Mola, Glen Liddell D.; Monasta, Lorenzo; Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montañez; Montero, Pablo; Montico, Marcella; Montine, Thomas J.; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Morawska, Lidia; Morgan, Katherine; Mori, Rintaro; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Mueller, Ulrich O.; Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana; Murthy, Srinivas; Musa, Kamarul Imran; Nachega, Jean B.; Nagel, Gabriele; Naidoo, Kovin S.; Naik, Nitish; Naldi, Luigi; Nangia, Vinay; Nash, Denis; Nejjari, Chakib; Neupane, Subas; Newton, Charles R.; Newton, John N.; Ng, Marie; Ngalesoni, Frida Namnyak; de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean; Nguyen, Quyen Le; Nisar, Muhammad Imran; Pete, Patrick Martial Nkamedjie; Nomura, Marika; Norheim, Ole F.; Norman, Paul E.; Norrving, Bo; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Ojelabi, Foluke Adetola; Olivares, Pedro R.; Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola; Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun; Opio, John Nelson; Oren, Eyal; Ortiz, Alberto; Osman, Majdi; Ota, Erika; Ozdemir, Raziye; PA, Mahesh; Pandian, Jeyaraj D.; Pant, Puspa Raj; Papachristou, Christina; Park, Eun Kee; Park, Jae Hyun; Parry, Charles D.; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Caicedo, Angel J.Paternina; Patten, Scott B.; Patton, George C.; Paul, Vinod K.; Pearce, Neil; Pedro, João Mário; Stokic, Ljiljana Pejin; Pereira, David M.; Perico, Norberto; Pesudovs, Konrad; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael Robert; Piel, Frédéric B.; Pillay, Julian David; Plass, Dietrich; Platts-Mills, James A.; Polinder, Suzanne; Pope, C. Arden; Popova, Svetlana; Poulton, Richie G.; Pourmalek, Farshad; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Qorbani, Mostafa; Quame-Amaglo, Justice; Quistberg, D. Alex; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Mahfuzar; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Rajavi, Zhale; Rajsic, Sasa; Raju, Murugesan; Rakovac, Ivo; Rana, Saleem M.; Ranabhat, Chhabi L.; Rangaswamy, Thara; Rao, Puja; Rao, Sowmya R.; Refaat, Amany H.; Rehm, Jürgen; Reitsma, Marissa B.; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Resnikoff, Serge; Ribeiro, Antonio L.; Ricci, Stefano; Blancas, Maria Jesus Rios; Roberts, Bayard; Roca, Anna; Rojas-Rueda, David; Ronfani, Luca; Roshandel, Gholamreza; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Roy, Ambuj; Roy, Nawal K.; Ruhago, George Mugambage; Sagar, Rajesh; Saha, Sukanta; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Saleh, Muhammad Muhammad; Sanabria, Juan R.; Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolores; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Santos, Itamar S.; Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo; Sartorius, Benn; Satpathy, Maheswar; Savic, Miloje; Sawhney, Monika; Schaub, Michael P.; Schmidt, Maria Inês; Schneider, Ione J.C.; Schöttker, Ben; Schutte, Aletta E.; Schwebel, David C.; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Servan-Mori, Edson E.; Shackelford, Katya A.; Shaddick, Gavin; Shaheen, Amira; Shahraz, Saeid; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Shakh-Nazarova, Marina; Sharma, Rajesh; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shen, Jiabin; Shen, Ziyan; Shepard, Donald S.; Sheth, Kevin N.; Shetty, Balakrishna P.; Shi, Peilin; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Min Jeong; Shiri, Rahman; Shiue, Ivy; Shrime, Mark G.; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Silberberg, Donald H.; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves; Silverberg, Jonathan I.; Simard, Edgar P.; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Gitanjali M.; Singh, Jasvinder A.; Singh, Om Prakash; Singh, Prashant Kumar; Singh, Virendra; Soneji, Samir; Søreide, Kjetil; Soriano, Joan B.; Sposato, Luciano A.; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Stein, Dan J.; Stein, Murray B.; Stranges, Saverio; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sunguya, Bruno F.; Sur, Patrick; Swaminathan, Soumya; Sykes, Bryan L.; Szoeke, Cassandra E.I.; Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael; Tabb, Karen M.; Takahashi, Ken; Takala, Jukka S.; Talongwa, Roberto Tchio; Tandon, Nikhil; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Taye, Bineyam; Taylor, Hugh R.; Ao, Braden J.Te; Tedla, Bemnet Amare; Tefera, Worku Mekonnen; Have, Margreet Ten; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Tesfay, Fisaha Haile; Tessema, Gizachew Assefa; Thomson, Alan J.; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L.; Thrift, Amanda G.; Thurston, George D.; Tillmann, Taavi; Tirschwell, David L.; Tonelli, Marcello; Topor-Madry, Roman; Topouzis, Fotis; Towbin, Jeffrey Allen; Traebert, Jefferson; Tran, Bach Xuan; Truelsen, Thomas; Trujillo, Ulises; Tura, Abera Kenay; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Uchendu, Uche S.; Ukwaja, Kingsley N.; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Uthman, Olalekan A.; Dingenen, Rita Van; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Vasankari, Tommi; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy; Vidavalur, Ramesh; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Villalpando, Salvador; Violante, Francesco S.; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Wagner, Joseph A.; Wagner, Gregory R.; Wallin, Mitchell T.; Wang, Linhong; Watkins, David A.; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G.; Werdecker, Andrea; Westerman, Ronny; White, Richard A.; Wijeratne, Tissa; Wilkinson, James D.; Williams, Hywel C.; Wiysonge, Charles Shey; Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret; Wolfe, Charles D.A.; Won, Sungho; Wong, John Q.; Woolf, Anthony D.; Xavier, Denis; Xiao, Qingyang; Xu, Gelin; Yakob, Bereket; Yalew, Ayalnesh Zemene; Yan, Lijing L.; Yano, Yuichiro; Yaseri, Mehdi; Ye, Pengpeng; Yebyo, Henock Gebremedhin; Yip, Paul; Yirsaw, Biruck Desalegn; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yonga, Gerald; Younis, Mustafa Z.; Yu, Shicheng; Zaidi, Zoubida; Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed; Zannad, Faiez; Zavala, Diego E.; Zeeb, Hajo; Zeleke, Berihun M.; Zhang, Hao; Zodpey, Sanjay; Zonies, David; Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna; Vos, Theo; Lopez, Alan D.; Murray, Christopher J.L.

In: The Lancet, Vol. 388, No. 10053, 08.10.2016, p. 1459-1544.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Wang, H, Naghavi, M, Allen, C, Barber, RM, Bhutta, ZA, Carter, A, Casey, DC, Charlson, FJ, Chen, AZ, Coates, MM, Coggeshall, M, Dandona, L, Dicker, DJ, Erskine, HE, Ferrari, AJ, Fitzmaurice, C, Foreman, K, Forouzanfar, MH, Fraser, MS, Fullman, N, Gething, PW, Goldberg, EM, Graetz, N, Haagsma, JA, Hay, SI, Huynh, C, Johnson, CO, Kassebaum, NJ, Kinfu, Y, Kulikoff, XR, Kutz, M, Kyu, HH, Larson, HJ, Leung, J, Liang, X, Lim, SS, Lind, M, Lozano, R, Marquez, N, Mensah, GA, Mikesell, J, Mokdad, AH, Mooney, MD, Nguyen, G, Nsoesie, E, Pigott, DM, Pinho, C, Roth, GA, Salomon, JA, Sandar, L, Silpakit, N, Sligar, A, Sorensen, RJD, Stanaway, J, Steiner, C, Teeple, S, Thomas, BA, Troeger, C, VanderZanden, A, Vollset, SE, Wanga, V, Whiteford, HA, Wolock, T, Zoeckler, L, Abate, KH, Abbafati, C, Abbas, KM, Abd-Allah, F, Abera, SF, Abreu, DMX, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abyu, GY, Achoki, T, Adelekan, AL, Ademi, Z, Adou, AK, Adsuar, JC, Afanvi, KA, Afshin, A, Agardh, EE, Agarwal, A, Agrawal, A, Kiadaliri, AA, Ajala, ON, Akanda, AS, Akinyemi, RO, Akinyemiju, TF, Akseer, N, Lami, FHA, Alabed, S, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alam, NKM, Alasfoor, D, Aldhahri, SF, Aldridge, RW, Alegretti, MA, Aleman, AV, Alemu, ZA, Alexander, LT, Alhabib, S, Ali, R, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Al-Raddadi, R, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, KA, Martin, EA, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Amegah, AK, Ameh, EA, Amini, H, Ammar, W, Amrock, SM, Andersen, HH, Anderson, BO, Anderson, GM, Antonio, CAT, Aregay, AF, Ärnlöv, J, Arsenijevic, VSA, Artaman, A, Asayesh, H, Asghar, RJ, Atique, S, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Azzopardi, P, Bacha, U, Badawi, A, Bahit, MC, Balakrishnan, K, Banerjee, A, Barac, A, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, T, Barregard, L, Barrero, LH, Basu, A, Basu, S, Bayou, YT, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Beardsley, J, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Belay, HA, Bell, B, Bell, ML, Bello, AK, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Berhane, A, Bernabé, E, Betsu, BD, Beyene, AS, Bhala, N, Bhalla, A, Biadgilign, S, Bikbov, B, Abdulhak, AAB, Biroscak, BJ, 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In: The Lancet. 2016 ; Vol. 388, No. 10053. pp. 1459-1544.
@article{a16e2da981b14d529e9559c3fb5aeaaf,
title = "Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015",
abstract = "Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography–year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95{\%} uncertainty interval 61·4–61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5–72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7–17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5–70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1{\%} (2·6–5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0{\%} (15·8–18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1{\%} (12·6–16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1{\%} (11·9–14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1{\%}, 39·1–44·6), malaria (43·1{\%}, 34·7–51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8{\%}, 24·8–34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1{\%}, 19·3–37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000–183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000–532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.",
author = "Haidong Wang and Mohsen Naghavi and Christine Allen and Barber, {Ryan M.} and Bhutta, {Zulfiqar A.} and Austin Carter and Casey, {Daniel C.} and Charlson, {Fiona J.} and Chen, {Alan Zian} and Coates, {Matthew M.} and Megan Coggeshall and Lalit Dandona and Dicker, {Daniel J.} and Erskine, {Holly E.} and Ferrari, {Alize J.} and Christina Fitzmaurice and Kyle Foreman and Forouzanfar, {Mohammad H.} and Fraser, {Maya S.} and Nancy Fullman and Gething, {Peter W.} and Goldberg, {Ellen M.} and Nicholas Graetz and Haagsma, {Juanita A.} and Hay, {Simon I.} and Chantal Huynh and Johnson, {Catherine O.} and Kassebaum, {Nicholas J.} and Yohannes Kinfu and Kulikoff, {Xie Rachel} and Michael Kutz and Kyu, {Hmwe H.} and Larson, {Heidi J.} and Janni Leung and Xiaofeng Liang and Lim, {Stephen S.} and Margaret Lind and Rafael Lozano and Neal Marquez and Mensah, {George A.} and Joe Mikesell and Mokdad, {Ali H.} and Mooney, {Meghan D.} and Grant Nguyen and Elaine Nsoesie and Pigott, {David M.} and Christine Pinho and Roth, {Gregory A.} and Salomon, {Joshua A.} and Logan Sandar and Naris Silpakit and Amber Sligar and Sorensen, {Reed J.D.} and Jeffrey Stanaway and Caitlyn Steiner and Stephanie Teeple and Thomas, {Bernadette A.} and Christopher Troeger and Amelia VanderZanden and Vollset, {Stein Emil} and Valentine Wanga and Whiteford, {Harvey A.} and Timothy Wolock and Leo Zoeckler and Abate, {Kalkidan Hassen} and Cristiana Abbafati and Abbas, {Kaja M.} and Foad Abd-Allah and Abera, {Semaw Ferede} and Abreu, {Daisy M.X.} and Abu-Raddad, {Laith J.} and Abyu, {Gebre Yitayih} and Tom Achoki and Adelekan, {Ademola Lukman} and Zanfina Ademi and Adou, {Ars{\`e}ne Kouablan} and Adsuar, {Jos{\'e} C.} and Afanvi, {Kossivi Agbelenko} and Ashkan Afshin and Agardh, {Emilie Elisabet} and Arnav Agarwal and Anurag Agrawal and Kiadaliri, {Aliasghar Ahmad} and Ajala, {Oluremi N.} and Akanda, {Ali Shafqat} and Akinyemi, {Rufus Olusola} and Akinyemiju, {Tomi F.} and Nadia Akseer and Lami, {Faris Hasan Al} and Samer Alabed and Ziyad Al-Aly and Khurshid Alam and Alam, {Noore K.M.} and Deena Alasfoor and Aldhahri, {Saleh Fahed} and Aldridge, {Robert William} and Alegretti, {Miguel Angel} and Aleman, {Alicia V.} and Alemu, {Zewdie Aderaw} and Alexander, {Lily T.} and Samia Alhabib and Raghib Ali and Ala'a Alkerwi and Fran{\cc}ois Alla and Peter Allebeck and Rajaa Al-Raddadi and Ubai Alsharif and Altirkawi, {Khalid A.} and Martin, {Elena Alvarez} and Nelson Alvis-Guzman and Amare, {Azmeraw T.} and Amegah, {Adeladza Kofi} and Ameh, {Emmanuel A.} and Heresh Amini and Walid Ammar and Amrock, {Stephen Marc} and Andersen, {Hjalte H.} and Anderson, {Benjamin O.} and Anderson, {Gregory M.} and Antonio, {Carl Abelardo T.} and Aregay, {Atsede Fantahun} and Johan {\"A}rnl{\"o}v and Arsenijevic, {Valentina S.Arsic} and Al Artaman and Hamid Asayesh and Asghar, {Rana Jawad} and Suleman Atique and Avokpaho, {Euripide Frinel G.Arthur} and Ashish Awasthi and Peter Azzopardi and Umar Bacha and Alaa Badawi and Bahit, {Maria C.} and Kalpana Balakrishnan and Amitava Banerjee and Aleksandra Barac and Barker-Collo, {Suzanne L.} and Till B{\"a}rnighausen and Lars Barregard and Barrero, {Lope H.} and Arindam Basu and Sanjay Basu and Bayou, {Yibeltal Tebekaw} and Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi and Justin Beardsley and Neeraj Bedi and Ettore Beghi and Belay, {Haileeyesus Adamu} and Brent Bell and Bell, {Michelle L.} and Bello, {Aminu K.} and Bennett, {Derrick A.} and Bensenor, {Isabela M.} and Adugnaw Berhane and Eduardo Bernab{\'e} and Betsu, {Balem Demtsu} and Beyene, {Addisu Shunu} and Neeraj Bhala and Ashish Bhalla and Sibhatu Biadgilign and Boris Bikbov and Abdulhak, {Aref A.Bin} and Biroscak, {Brian J.} and Stan Biryukov and Espen Bjertness and Blore, {Jed D.} and Blosser, {Christopher D.} and Bohensky, {Megan A.} and Rohan Borschmann and Dipan Bose and Bourne, {Rupert R.A.} and Michael Brainin and Brayne, {Carol E.G.} and Alexandra Brazinova and Breitborde, {Nicholas J.K.} and Hermann 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Dean} and Hotez, {Peter J.} and Hoy, {Damian G.} and Mohamed Hsairi and Htet, {Aung Soe} and Htike, {Maung Maung Than} and Guoqing Hu and Cheng Huang and Hsiang Huang and Laetitia Huiart and Abdullatif Husseini and Inge Huybrechts and Grace Huynh and Iburg, {Kim Moesgaard} and Kaire Innos and Manami Inoue and Iyer, {Veena J.} and Jacobs, {Troy A.} and Jacobsen, {Kathryn H.} and Nader Jahanmehr and Jakovljevic, {Mihajlo B.} and Peter James and Mehdi Javanbakht and Jayaraman, {Sudha P.} and Jayatilleke, {Achala Upendra} and Panniyammakal Jeemon and Jensen, {Paul N.} and Vivekanand Jha and Guohong Jiang and Ying Jiang and Tariku Jibat and Aida Jimenez-Corona and Jonas, {Jost B.} and Joshi, {Tushar Kant} and Zubair Kabir and Ritul Kamal and Haidong Kan and Surya Kant and Andr{\'e} Karch and Karema, {Corine Kakizi} and Chante Karimkhani and Dimitris Karletsos and Ganesan Karthikeyan and Amir Kasaeian and Marzieh Katibeh and Anil Kaul and Norito Kawakami and Kayibanda, {Jeanne Fran{\cc}oise} and Keiyoro, {Peter Njenga} and Laura Kemmer and Kemp, {Andrew Haddon} and Kengne, {Andre Pascal} and Andre Keren and Maia Kereselidze and Kesavachandran, {Chandrasekharan Nair} and Khader, {Yousef Saleh} and Khalil, {Ibrahim A.} and Khan, {Abdur Rahman} and Khan, {Ejaz Ahmad} and Khang, {Young Ho} and Sahil Khera and Khoja, {Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer} and Christian Kieling and Daniel Kim and Kim, {Yun Jin} and Kissela, {Brett M.} and Niranjan Kissoon and Knibbs, {Luke D.} and Knudsen, {Ann Kristin} and Yoshihiro Kokubo and Dhaval Kolte and Kopec, {Jacek A.} and Soewarta Kosen and Koul, {Parvaiz A.} and Ai Koyanagi and Krog, {Norun Hjertager} and Defo, {Barthelemy Kuate} and Bicer, {Burcu Kucuk} and Kudom, {Andreas A.} and Kuipers, {Ernst J.} and Kulkarni, {Veena S.} and Kumar, {G. Anil} and Kwan, {Gene F.} and Aparna Lal and Lal, {Dharmesh Kumar} and Ratilal Lalloo and Hilton Lam and Lam, {Jennifer O.} and Langan, {Sinead M.} and Lansingh, {Van C.} and Anders Larsson and Laryea, {Dennis Odai} and Latif, {Asma Abdul} and Lawrynowicz, {Alicia Elena Beatriz} and James Leigh and Miriam Levi and Yongmei Li and Lindsay, {M. Patrice} and Lipshultz, {Steven E.} and Liu, {Patrick Y.} and Shiwei Liu and Yang Liu and Lo, {Loon Tzian} and Giancarlo Logroscino and Lotufo, {Paulo A.} and Lucas, {Robyn M.} and Raimundas Lunevicius and Lyons, {Ronan A.} and Stefan Ma and Machado, {Vasco Manuel Pedro} and Mackay, {Mark T.} and MacLachlan, {Jennifer H.} and Razek, {Hassan Magdy Abd El} and Mohammed Magdy and Razek, {Abd El} and Marek Majdan and Azeem Majeed and Reza Malekzadeh and Manamo, {Wondimu Ayele Ayele} and John Mandisarisa and Srikanth Mangalam and Mapoma, {Chabila C.} and Wagner Marcenes and Margolis, {David Joel} and Martin, {Gerard Robert} and Jose Martinez-Raga and Marzan, {Melvin Barrientos} and Felix Masiye and Mason-Jones, {Amanda J.} and Jo{\~a}o Massano and Richard Matzopoulos and Mayosi, {Bongani M.} and McGarvey, {Stephen Theodore} and McGrath, {John J.} and Martin McKee and McMahon, {Brian J.} and Meaney, {Peter A.} and Alem Mehari and Mehndiratta, {Man Mohan} and Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez and Mekonnen, {Alemayehu B.} and Melaku, {Yohannes Adama} and Peter Memiah and Memish, {Ziad A.} and Walter Mendoza and Atte Meretoja and Meretoja, {Tuomo J.} and Mhimbira, {Francis Apolinary} and Renata Micha and Miller, {Ted R.} and Mojde Mirarefin and Awoke Misganaw and Mock, {Charles N.} and Mohammad, {Karzan Abdulmuhsin} and Alireza Mohammadi and Shafiu Mohammed and Viswanathan Mohan and Mola, {Glen Liddell D.} and Lorenzo Monasta and Hernandez, {Julio Cesar Monta{\~n}ez} and Pablo Montero and Marcella Montico and Montine, {Thomas J.} and Maziar Moradi-Lakeh and Lidia Morawska and Katherine Morgan and Rintaro Mori and Dariush Mozaffarian and Mueller, {Ulrich O.} and Murthy, {Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana} and Srinivas Murthy and Musa, {Kamarul Imran} and Nachega, {Jean B.} and Gabriele Nagel and Naidoo, {Kovin S.} and Nitish Naik and Luigi Naldi and Vinay Nangia and Denis Nash and Chakib Nejjari and Subas Neupane and Newton, {Charles R.} and Newton, {John N.} and Marie Ng and Ngalesoni, {Frida Namnyak} and {de Dieu Ngirabega}, Jean and Nguyen, {Quyen Le} and Nisar, {Muhammad Imran} and Pete, {Patrick Martial Nkamedjie} and Marika Nomura and Norheim, {Ole F.} and Norman, {Paul E.} and Bo Norrving and Luke Nyakarahuka and Ogbo, {Felix Akpojene} and Takayoshi Ohkubo and Ojelabi, {Foluke Adetola} and Olivares, {Pedro R.} and Olusanya, {Bolajoko Olubukunola} and Olusanya, {Jacob Olusegun} and Opio, {John Nelson} and Eyal Oren and Alberto Ortiz and Majdi Osman and Erika Ota and Raziye Ozdemir and Mahesh PA and Pandian, {Jeyaraj D.} and Pant, {Puspa Raj} and Christina Papachristou and Park, {Eun Kee} and Park, {Jae Hyun} and Parry, {Charles D.} and Mahboubeh Parsaeian and Caicedo, {Angel J.Paternina} and Patten, {Scott B.} and Patton, {George C.} and Paul, {Vinod K.} and Neil Pearce and Pedro, {Jo{\~a}o M{\'a}rio} and Stokic, {Ljiljana Pejin} and Pereira, {David M.} and Norberto Perico and Konrad Pesudovs and Max Petzold and Phillips, {Michael Robert} and Piel, {Fr{\'e}d{\'e}ric B.} and Pillay, {Julian David} and Dietrich Plass and Platts-Mills, {James A.} and Suzanne Polinder and Pope, {C. Arden} and Svetlana Popova and Poulton, {Richie G.} and Farshad Pourmalek and Dorairaj Prabhakaran and Mostafa Qorbani and Justice Quame-Amaglo and Quistberg, {D. Alex} and Anwar Rafay and Kazem Rahimi and Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar and Mahfuzar Rahman and Rahman, {Mohammad Hifz Ur} and Rahman, {Sajjad Ur} and Rai, {Rajesh Kumar} and Zhale Rajavi and Sasa Rajsic and Murugesan Raju and Ivo Rakovac and Rana, {Saleem M.} and Ranabhat, {Chhabi L.} and Thara Rangaswamy and Puja Rao and Rao, {Sowmya R.} and Refaat, {Amany H.} and J{\"u}rgen Rehm and Reitsma, {Marissa B.} and Giuseppe Remuzzi and Serge Resnikoff and Ribeiro, {Antonio L.} and Stefano Ricci and Blancas, {Maria Jesus Rios} and Bayard Roberts and Anna Roca and David Rojas-Rueda and Luca Ronfani and Gholamreza Roshandel and Dietrich Rothenbacher and Ambuj Roy and Roy, {Nawal K.} and Ruhago, {George Mugambage} and Rajesh Sagar and Sukanta Saha and Ramesh Sahathevan and Saleh, {Muhammad Muhammad} and Sanabria, {Juan R.} and Sanchez-Ni{\~n}o, {Maria Dolores} and Lidia Sanchez-Riera and Santos, {Itamar S.} and Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez and Benn Sartorius and Maheswar Satpathy and Miloje Savic and Monika Sawhney and Schaub, {Michael P.} and Schmidt, {Maria In{\^e}s} and Schneider, {Ione J.C.} and Ben Sch{\"o}ttker and Schutte, {Aletta E.} and Schwebel, {David C.} and Soraya Seedat and Sepanlou, {Sadaf G.} and Servan-Mori, {Edson E.} and Shackelford, {Katya A.} and Gavin Shaddick and Amira Shaheen and Saeid Shahraz and Shaikh, {Masood Ali} and Marina Shakh-Nazarova and Rajesh Sharma and Jun She and Sara Sheikhbahaei and Jiabin Shen and Ziyan Shen and Shepard, {Donald S.} and Sheth, {Kevin N.} and Shetty, {Balakrishna P.} and Peilin Shi and Kenji Shibuya and Shin, {Min Jeong} and Rahman Shiri and Ivy Shiue and Shrime, {Mark G.} and Sigfusdottir, {Inga Dora} and Silberberg, {Donald H.} and Silva, {Diego Augusto Santos} and Silveira, {Dayane Gabriele Alves} and Silverberg, {Jonathan I.} and Simard, {Edgar P.} and Abhishek Singh and Singh, {Gitanjali M.} and Singh, {Jasvinder A.} and Singh, {Om Prakash} and Singh, {Prashant Kumar} and Virendra Singh and Samir Soneji and Kjetil S{\o}reide and Soriano, {Joan B.} and Sposato, {Luciano A.} and Sreeramareddy, {Chandrashekhar T.} and Vasiliki Stathopoulou and Stein, {Dan J.} and Stein, {Murray B.} and Saverio Stranges and Konstantinos Stroumpoulis and Sunguya, {Bruno F.} and Patrick Sur and Soumya Swaminathan and Sykes, {Bryan L.} and Szoeke, {Cassandra E.I.} and Rafael Tabar{\'e}s-Seisdedos and Tabb, {Karen M.} and Ken Takahashi and Takala, {Jukka S.} and Talongwa, {Roberto Tchio} and Nikhil Tandon and Mohammad Tavakkoli and Bineyam Taye and Taylor, {Hugh R.} and Ao, {Braden J.Te} and Tedla, {Bemnet Amare} and Tefera, {Worku Mekonnen} and Have, {Margreet Ten} and Terkawi, {Abdullah Sulieman} and Tesfay, {Fisaha Haile} and Tessema, {Gizachew Assefa} and Thomson, {Alan J.} and Thorne-Lyman, {Andrew L.} and Thrift, {Amanda G.} and Thurston, {George D.} and Taavi Tillmann and Tirschwell, {David L.} and Marcello Tonelli and Roman Topor-Madry and Fotis Topouzis and Towbin, {Jeffrey Allen} and Jefferson Traebert and Tran, {Bach Xuan} and Thomas Truelsen and Ulises Trujillo and Tura, {Abera Kenay} and Tuzcu, {Emin Murat} and Uchendu, {Uche S.} and Ukwaja, {Kingsley N.} and Undurraga, {Eduardo A.} and Uthman, {Olalekan A.} and Dingenen, {Rita Van} and {van Donkelaar}, Aaron and Tommi Vasankari and Vasconcelos, {Ana Maria Nogales} and Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian and Ramesh Vidavalur and Lakshmi Vijayakumar and Salvador Villalpando and Violante, {Francesco S.} and Vlassov, {Vasiliy Victorovich} and Wagner, {Joseph A.} and Wagner, {Gregory R.} and Wallin, {Mitchell T.} and Linhong Wang and Watkins, {David A.} and Scott Weichenthal and Elisabete Weiderpass and Weintraub, {Robert G.} and Andrea Werdecker and Ronny Westerman and White, {Richard A.} and Tissa Wijeratne and Wilkinson, {James D.} and Williams, {Hywel C.} and Wiysonge, {Charles Shey} and Woldeyohannes, {Solomon Meseret} and Wolfe, {Charles D.A.} and Sungho Won and Wong, {John Q.} and Woolf, {Anthony D.} and Denis Xavier and Qingyang Xiao and Gelin Xu and Bereket Yakob and Yalew, {Ayalnesh Zemene} and Yan, {Lijing L.} and Yuichiro Yano and Mehdi Yaseri and Pengpeng Ye and Yebyo, {Henock Gebremedhin} and Paul Yip and Yirsaw, {Biruck Desalegn} and Naohiro Yonemoto and Gerald Yonga and Younis, {Mustafa Z.} and Shicheng Yu and Zoubida Zaidi and Zaki, {Maysaa El Sayed} and Faiez Zannad and Zavala, {Diego E.} and Hajo Zeeb and Zeleke, {Berihun M.} and Hao Zhang and Sanjay Zodpey and David Zonies and Zuhlke, {Liesl Joanna} and Theo Vos and Lopez, {Alan D.} and Murray, {Christopher J.L.}",
year = "2016",
month = "10",
day = "8",
doi = "10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31012-1",
language = "English",
volume = "388",
pages = "1459--1544",
journal = "The Lancet",
issn = "0140-6736",
publisher = "Elsevier Limited",
number = "10053",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015

T2 - a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

AU - Wang, Haidong

AU - Naghavi, Mohsen

AU - Allen, Christine

AU - Barber, Ryan M.

AU - Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.

AU - Carter, Austin

AU - Casey, Daniel C.

AU - Charlson, Fiona J.

AU - Chen, Alan Zian

AU - Coates, Matthew M.

AU - Coggeshall, Megan

AU - Dandona, Lalit

AU - Dicker, Daniel J.

AU - Erskine, Holly E.

AU - Ferrari, Alize J.

AU - Fitzmaurice, Christina

AU - Foreman, Kyle

AU - Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.

AU - Fraser, Maya S.

AU - Fullman, Nancy

AU - Gething, Peter W.

AU - Goldberg, Ellen M.

AU - Graetz, Nicholas

AU - Haagsma, Juanita A.

AU - Hay, Simon I.

AU - Huynh, Chantal

AU - Johnson, Catherine O.

AU - Kassebaum, Nicholas J.

AU - Kinfu, Yohannes

AU - Kulikoff, Xie Rachel

AU - Kutz, Michael

AU - Kyu, Hmwe H.

AU - Larson, Heidi J.

AU - Leung, Janni

AU - Liang, Xiaofeng

AU - Lim, Stephen S.

AU - Lind, Margaret

AU - Lozano, Rafael

AU - Marquez, Neal

AU - Mensah, George A.

AU - Mikesell, Joe

AU - Mokdad, Ali H.

AU - Mooney, Meghan D.

AU - Nguyen, Grant

AU - Nsoesie, Elaine

AU - Pigott, David M.

AU - Pinho, Christine

AU - Roth, Gregory A.

AU - Salomon, Joshua A.

AU - Sandar, Logan

AU - Silpakit, Naris

AU - Sligar, Amber

AU - Sorensen, Reed J.D.

AU - Stanaway, Jeffrey

AU - Steiner, Caitlyn

AU - Teeple, Stephanie

AU - Thomas, Bernadette A.

AU - Troeger, Christopher

AU - VanderZanden, Amelia

AU - Vollset, Stein Emil

AU - Wanga, Valentine

AU - Whiteford, Harvey A.

AU - Wolock, Timothy

AU - Zoeckler, Leo

AU - Abate, Kalkidan Hassen

AU - Abbafati, Cristiana

AU - Abbas, Kaja M.

AU - Abd-Allah, Foad

AU - Abera, Semaw Ferede

AU - Abreu, Daisy M.X.

AU - Abu-Raddad, Laith J.

AU - Abyu, Gebre Yitayih

AU - Achoki, Tom

AU - Adelekan, Ademola Lukman

AU - Ademi, Zanfina

AU - Adou, Arsène Kouablan

AU - Adsuar, José C.

AU - Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko

AU - Afshin, Ashkan

AU - Agardh, Emilie Elisabet

AU - Agarwal, Arnav

AU - Agrawal, Anurag

AU - Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad

AU - Ajala, Oluremi N.

AU - Akanda, Ali Shafqat

AU - Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola

AU - Akinyemiju, Tomi F.

AU - Akseer, Nadia

AU - Lami, Faris Hasan Al

AU - Alabed, Samer

AU - Al-Aly, Ziyad

AU - Alam, Khurshid

AU - Alam, Noore K.M.

AU - Alasfoor, Deena

AU - Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed

AU - Aldridge, Robert William

AU - Alegretti, Miguel Angel

AU - Aleman, Alicia V.

AU - Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw

AU - Alexander, Lily T.

AU - Alhabib, Samia

AU - Ali, Raghib

AU - Alkerwi, Ala'a

AU - Alla, François

AU - Allebeck, Peter

AU - Al-Raddadi, Rajaa

AU - Alsharif, Ubai

AU - Altirkawi, Khalid A.

AU - Martin, Elena Alvarez

AU - Alvis-Guzman, Nelson

AU - Amare, Azmeraw T.

AU - Amegah, Adeladza Kofi

AU - Ameh, Emmanuel A.

AU - Amini, Heresh

AU - Ammar, Walid

AU - Amrock, Stephen Marc

AU - Andersen, Hjalte H.

AU - Anderson, Benjamin O.

AU - Anderson, Gregory M.

AU - Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.

AU - Aregay, Atsede Fantahun

AU - Ärnlöv, Johan

AU - Arsenijevic, Valentina S.Arsic

AU - Artaman, Al

AU - Asayesh, Hamid

AU - Asghar, Rana Jawad

AU - Atique, Suleman

AU - Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G.Arthur

AU - Awasthi, Ashish

AU - Azzopardi, Peter

AU - Bacha, Umar

AU - Badawi, Alaa

AU - Bahit, Maria C.

AU - Balakrishnan, Kalpana

AU - Banerjee, Amitava

AU - Barac, Aleksandra

AU - Barker-Collo, Suzanne L.

AU - Bärnighausen, Till

AU - Barregard, Lars

AU - Barrero, Lope H.

AU - Basu, Arindam

AU - Basu, Sanjay

AU - Bayou, Yibeltal Tebekaw

AU - Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad

AU - Beardsley, Justin

AU - Bedi, Neeraj

AU - Beghi, Ettore

AU - Belay, Haileeyesus Adamu

AU - Bell, Brent

AU - Bell, Michelle L.

AU - Bello, Aminu K.

AU - Bennett, Derrick A.

AU - Bensenor, Isabela M.

AU - Berhane, Adugnaw

AU - Bernabé, Eduardo

AU - Betsu, Balem Demtsu

AU - Beyene, Addisu Shunu

AU - Bhala, Neeraj

AU - Bhalla, Ashish

AU - Biadgilign, Sibhatu

AU - Bikbov, Boris

AU - Abdulhak, Aref A.Bin

AU - Biroscak, Brian J.

AU - Biryukov, Stan

AU - Bjertness, Espen

AU - Blore, Jed D.

AU - Blosser, Christopher D.

AU - Bohensky, Megan A.

AU - Borschmann, Rohan

AU - Bose, Dipan

AU - Bourne, Rupert R.A.

AU - Brainin, Michael

AU - Brayne, Carol E.G.

AU - Brazinova, Alexandra

AU - Breitborde, Nicholas J.K.

AU - Brenner, Hermann

AU - Brewer, Jerry D.

AU - Brown, Alexandria

AU - Brown, Jonathan

AU - Brugha, Traolach S.

AU - Buckle, Geoffrey Colin

AU - Butt, Zahid A.

AU - Calabria, Bianca

AU - Campos-Nonato, Ismael Ricardo

AU - Campuzano, Julio Cesar

AU - Carapetis, Jonathan R.

AU - Cárdenas, Rosario

AU - Carpenter, David O.

AU - Aburaddad, Laith

AU - Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A.

AU - Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo

AU - Catalá-López, Ferrán

AU - Cavalleri, Fiorella

AU - Cercy, Kelly

AU - Cerda, Jorge

AU - Chen, Wanqing

AU - Chew, Adrienne

AU - Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia

AU - Chibalabala, Mirriam

AU - Chibueze, Chioma Ezinne

AU - Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel

AU - Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe

AU - Choi, Jee Young Jasmine

AU - Chowdhury, Rajiv

AU - Christensen, Hanne

AU - Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas

AU - Ciobanu, Liliana G.

AU - Cirillo, Massimo

AU - Cohen, Aaron J.

AU - Colistro, Valentina

AU - Colomar, Mercedes

AU - Colquhoun, Samantha M.

AU - Cooper, Cyrus

AU - Cooper, Leslie Trumbull

AU - Cortinovis, Monica

AU - Cowie, Benjamin C.

AU - Crump, John A.

AU - Damsere-Derry, James

AU - Danawi, Hadi

AU - Dandona, Rakhi

AU - Daoud, Farah

AU - Darby, Sarah C.

AU - Dargan, Paul I.

AU - das Neves, José

AU - Davey, Gail

AU - Davis, Adrian C.

AU - Davitoiu, Dragos V.

AU - de Castro, E. Filipa

AU - de Jager, Pieter

AU - Leo, Diego De

AU - Degenhardt, Louisa

AU - Dellavalle, Robert P.

AU - Deribe, Kebede

AU - Deribew, Amare

AU - Dharmaratne, Samath D.

AU - Dhillon, Preet K.

AU - Diaz-Torné, Cesar

AU - Ding, Eric L.

AU - dos Santos, Kadine Priscila Bender

AU - Dossou, Edem

AU - Driscoll, Tim R.

AU - Duan, Leilei

AU - Dubey, Manisha

AU - Duncan, Bruce Bartholow

AU - Ellenbogen, Richard G.

AU - Ellingsen, Christian Lycke

AU - Elyazar, Iqbal

AU - Endries, Aman Yesuf

AU - Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich

AU - Eshrati, Babak

AU - Esteghamati, Alireza

AU - Estep, Kara

AU - Faghmous, Imad D.A.

AU - Fahimi, Saman

AU - Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino

AU - Farid, Talha A.

AU - Farinha, Carla Sofia e.Sa

AU - Faro, André

AU - Farvid, Maryam S.

AU - Farzadfar, Farshad

AU - Feigin, Valery L.

AU - Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad

AU - Fernandes, Jefferson G.

AU - Fernandes, Joao C.

AU - Fischer, Florian

AU - Fitchett, Joseph R.A.

AU - Flaxman, Abraham

AU - Foigt, Nataliya

AU - Fowkes, F. Gerry R.

AU - Franca, Elisabeth Barboza

AU - Franklin, Richard C.

AU - Friedman, Joseph

AU - Frostad, Joseph

AU - Fürst, Thomas

AU - Futran, Neal D.

AU - Gall, Seana L.

AU - Gambashidze, Ketevan

AU - Gamkrelidze, Amiran

AU - Ganguly, Parthasarathi

AU - Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho

AU - Gebre, Teshome

AU - Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tsewelde

AU - Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay

AU - Gebru, Alemseged Aregay

AU - Geleijnse, Johanna M.

AU - Gessner, Bradford D.

AU - Ghoshal, Aloke Gopal

AU - Gibney, Katherine B.

AU - Gillum, Richard F.

AU - Gilmour, Stuart

AU - Giref, Ababi Zergaw

AU - Giroud, Maurice

AU - Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo

AU - Giussani, Giorgia

AU - Glaser, Elizabeth

AU - Godwin, William W.

AU - Gomez-Dantes, Hector

AU - Gona, Philimon

AU - Goodridge, Amador

AU - Gopalani, Sameer Vali

AU - Gosselin, Richard A.

AU - Gotay, Carolyn C.

AU - Goto, Atsushi

AU - Gouda, Hebe N.

AU - Greaves, Felix

AU - Gugnani, Harish Chander

AU - Gupta, Rahul

AU - Gupta, Rajeev

AU - Gupta, Vipin

AU - Gutiérrez, Reyna A.

AU - Hafezi-Nejad, Nima

AU - Haile, Demewoz

AU - Hailu, Alemayehu Desalegne

AU - Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa

AU - Halasa, Yara A.

AU - Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi

AU - Hamidi, Samer

AU - Hancock, Jamie

AU - Handal, Alexis J.

AU - Hankey, Graeme J.

AU - Hao, Yuantao

AU - Harb, Hilda L.

AU - Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai

AU - Haro, Josep Maria

AU - Havmoeller, Rasmus

AU - Heckbert, Susan R.

AU - Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz

AU - Heydarpour, Pouria

AU - Hilderink, Henk B.M.

AU - Hoek, Hans W.

AU - Hogg, Robert S.

AU - Horino, Masako

AU - Horita, Nobuyuki

AU - Hosgood, H. Dean

AU - Hotez, Peter J.

AU - Hoy, Damian G.

AU - Hsairi, Mohamed

AU - Htet, Aung Soe

AU - Htike, Maung Maung Than

AU - Hu, Guoqing

AU - Huang, Cheng

AU - Huang, Hsiang

AU - Huiart, Laetitia

AU - Husseini, Abdullatif

AU - Huybrechts, Inge

AU - Huynh, Grace

AU - Iburg, Kim Moesgaard

AU - Innos, Kaire

AU - Inoue, Manami

AU - Iyer, Veena J.

AU - Jacobs, Troy A.

AU - Jacobsen, Kathryn H.

AU - Jahanmehr, Nader

AU - Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B.

AU - James, Peter

AU - Javanbakht, Mehdi

AU - Jayaraman, Sudha P.

AU - Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra

AU - Jeemon, Panniyammakal

AU - Jensen, Paul N.

AU - Jha, Vivekanand

AU - Jiang, Guohong

AU - Jiang, Ying

AU - Jibat, Tariku

AU - Jimenez-Corona, Aida

AU - Jonas, Jost B.

AU - Joshi, Tushar Kant

AU - Kabir, Zubair

AU - Kamal, Ritul

AU - Kan, Haidong

AU - Kant, Surya

AU - Karch, André

AU - Karema, Corine Kakizi

AU - Karimkhani, Chante

AU - Karletsos, Dimitris

AU - Karthikeyan, Ganesan

AU - Kasaeian, Amir

AU - Katibeh, Marzieh

AU - Kaul, Anil

AU - Kawakami, Norito

AU - Kayibanda, Jeanne Françoise

AU - Keiyoro, Peter Njenga

AU - Kemmer, Laura

AU - Kemp, Andrew Haddon

AU - Kengne, Andre Pascal

AU - Keren, Andre

AU - Kereselidze, Maia

AU - Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair

AU - Khader, Yousef Saleh

AU - Khalil, Ibrahim A.

AU - Khan, Abdur Rahman

AU - Khan, Ejaz Ahmad

AU - Khang, Young Ho

AU - Khera, Sahil

AU - Khoja, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer

AU - Kieling, Christian

AU - Kim, Daniel

AU - Kim, Yun Jin

AU - Kissela, Brett M.

AU - Kissoon, Niranjan

AU - Knibbs, Luke D.

AU - Knudsen, Ann Kristin

AU - Kokubo, Yoshihiro

AU - Kolte, Dhaval

AU - Kopec, Jacek A.

AU - Kosen, Soewarta

AU - Koul, Parvaiz A.

AU - Koyanagi, Ai

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PY - 2016/10/8

Y1 - 2016/10/8

N2 - Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography–year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4–61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5–72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7–17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5–70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6–5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8–18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6–16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9–14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1–44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7–51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8–34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3–37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000–183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000–532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

AB - Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography–year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4–61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5–72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7–17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5–70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6–5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8–18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6–16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9–14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1–44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7–51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8–34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3–37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000–183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000–532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31012-1

DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31012-1

M3 - Article

VL - 388

SP - 1459

EP - 1544

JO - The Lancet

JF - The Lancet

SN - 0140-6736

IS - 10053

ER -