Experiences fom the application of a parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology to the operational street pollution model (OSPM)

Thor Bjørn Ottosen, Matthias Ketzel, Ole Hertel, Henrik Skov, Jørgen Brandt, Ruwim Berkowicz, Konstantinos Kakosimos

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can potentially increase the transparency in the modelling process and guide research in the relationship between model and data. The uncertainty and sensitivity of the Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM), being an example of a semi-parameterised air quality model, have not been studied before, and it is therefore the aim to explore the potential advantages of this type of analyses on atmospheric models. An iterative parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology along with two different data splitting methodologies were chosen for the present study. The results show that this type of methodology can be informative applied to an atmospheric model, in that the methodology successfully balances the model-measurement errors among the different streets and the different species. Moreover, the results indicate where future research effort in model improvement should be directed, with respect to parameterisations and model parameter uncertainty.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationHARMO 2014 - 16th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, Proceedings
PublisherConference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes
Pages454-458
Number of pages5
Publication statusPublished - 2014
Event16th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, HARMO 2014 - Varna, Bulgaria
Duration: 8 Sep 201411 Sep 2014

Other

Other16th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, HARMO 2014
CountryBulgaria
CityVarna
Period8/9/1411/9/14

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Keywords

  • Data splitting
  • Exploratory data analysis
  • OSPM
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Uncertainty analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science
  • Pollution
  • Modelling and Simulation

Cite this

Ottosen, T. B., Ketzel, M., Hertel, O., Skov, H., Brandt, J., Berkowicz, R., & Kakosimos, K. (2014). Experiences fom the application of a parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology to the operational street pollution model (OSPM). In HARMO 2014 - 16th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, Proceedings (pp. 454-458). Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes.