Bridging the gap between human judgment and automated reasoning in predictive analytics

Antonio P. Sanfilippo, Roderick M. Riensche, Stephen D. Unwin, Jodi P. Amaya

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Events occur daily that impact the health, security and sustainable growth of our society. If we are to address the challenges that emerge from these events, anticipatory reasoning has to become an everyday activity. Strong advances have been made in using integrated modeling for analysis and decision making. However, a wider impact of predictive analytics is currently hindered by the lack of systematic methods for integrating predictive inferences from computer models with human judgment. In this paper, we present a predictive analytics approach that supports anticipatory analysis and decision-making through a concerted reasoning effort that interleaves human judgment and automated inferences. We describe a systematic methodology for integrating modeling algorithms within a serious gaming environment in which role-playing by human agents provides updates to model nodes and the ensuing model outcomes in turn influence the behavior of the human players. The approach ensures a strong functional partnership between human players and computer models while maintaining a high degree of independence and greatly facilitating the connection between model and game structures.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication10th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management 2010, PSAM 2010
Pages1954-1963
Number of pages10
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2010
Event10th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management 2010, PSAM 2010 - Seattle, WA, United States
Duration: 7 Jun 201011 Jun 2010

Publication series

Name10th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management 2010, PSAM 2010
Volume3

Conference

Conference10th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management 2010, PSAM 2010
CountryUnited States
CitySeattle, WA
Period7/6/1011/6/10

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Keywords

  • Decision making
  • Gaming
  • Modeling
  • Predictive analytics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

Cite this

Sanfilippo, A. P., Riensche, R. M., Unwin, S. D., & Amaya, J. P. (2010). Bridging the gap between human judgment and automated reasoning in predictive analytics. In 10th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management 2010, PSAM 2010 (pp. 1954-1963). (10th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management 2010, PSAM 2010; Vol. 3).