Analyses of extreme wave heights in the gulf of mexico for offshore engineering applications

Vijay Panchang, Chan Kwon Jeong, Zeki Demirbilek

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

16 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The 2004-2008 hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) saw several exceedances of what was regarded, prior to that period, as the 100-year significant wave heights (SWHs) that are used for the design of offshore oil and gas facilities. As a result, these facilities sustained considerable damage and disrupted U.S. energy supplies. The wave climatology in the GOM is therefore studied in detail. A 51-year database of SWHs was constructed by using a combination of wind and wave models, and both individual wave heights and statistical measures were validated, to the extent possible, using buoy data. Analyses of the modeled data show that there is an increasing trend in the annual maximum SWHs in the eastern part of the GOM; the maximum trend is approximately 5.6 cm/year, which is of the same magnitude as that reported for the U.S. west coast. The western part; on the other hand, shows a decreasing trend. The maximum estimated 100-year SWHs (denoted by SWH100) are 19.1 m, 22.6m and 26.7m for the Gumbel, Weibull, and the GEV distributions, respectively. The estimates obtained here using the Weibull distribution are comparable to those obtained independently by API (API—American Petroleum Institute, 2007, “Interim Guidance on Hurricane Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico,” API Bulletin No. 2INT-MET). However, the use of objective criteria to identify the optimal distribution suggests that the GEV estimates are to be preferred if the engineer wishes to emphasize the upper tail where extremes are likely to occur. The maximum increase in the SWH100 due to the 2004-2008 season is of the order of 0.9m to 2.7m (depending as the distribution). Information generated here is intended to supplement the design recommendations provided by API (American Petroleum Institute, 2007, “Interim Guidance on Hurricane Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico,” API Bulletin No. 2INT-MET).

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-15
Number of pages15
JournalJournal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering
Volume135
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2013

Fingerprint

Application programming interfaces (API)
Hurricanes
Crude oil
Climatology
Weibull distribution
Coastal zones
Engineers
Gases

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ocean Engineering
  • Mechanical Engineering

Cite this

Analyses of extreme wave heights in the gulf of mexico for offshore engineering applications. / Panchang, Vijay; Jeong, Chan Kwon; Demirbilek, Zeki.

In: Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, Vol. 135, No. 3, 01.01.2013, p. 1-15.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{a46f2d6fc2ed4362bfa98bf0c178495e,
title = "Analyses of extreme wave heights in the gulf of mexico for offshore engineering applications",
abstract = "The 2004-2008 hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) saw several exceedances of what was regarded, prior to that period, as the 100-year significant wave heights (SWHs) that are used for the design of offshore oil and gas facilities. As a result, these facilities sustained considerable damage and disrupted U.S. energy supplies. The wave climatology in the GOM is therefore studied in detail. A 51-year database of SWHs was constructed by using a combination of wind and wave models, and both individual wave heights and statistical measures were validated, to the extent possible, using buoy data. Analyses of the modeled data show that there is an increasing trend in the annual maximum SWHs in the eastern part of the GOM; the maximum trend is approximately 5.6 cm/year, which is of the same magnitude as that reported for the U.S. west coast. The western part; on the other hand, shows a decreasing trend. The maximum estimated 100-year SWHs (denoted by SWH100) are 19.1 m, 22.6m and 26.7m for the Gumbel, Weibull, and the GEV distributions, respectively. The estimates obtained here using the Weibull distribution are comparable to those obtained independently by API (API—American Petroleum Institute, 2007, “Interim Guidance on Hurricane Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico,” API Bulletin No. 2INT-MET). However, the use of objective criteria to identify the optimal distribution suggests that the GEV estimates are to be preferred if the engineer wishes to emphasize the upper tail where extremes are likely to occur. The maximum increase in the SWH100 due to the 2004-2008 season is of the order of 0.9m to 2.7m (depending as the distribution). Information generated here is intended to supplement the design recommendations provided by API (American Petroleum Institute, 2007, “Interim Guidance on Hurricane Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico,” API Bulletin No. 2INT-MET).",
author = "Vijay Panchang and Jeong, {Chan Kwon} and Zeki Demirbilek",
year = "2013",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1115/1.4023205",
language = "English",
volume = "135",
pages = "1--15",
journal = "Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering",
issn = "0892-7219",
publisher = "American Society of Mechanical Engineers(ASME)",
number = "3",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Analyses of extreme wave heights in the gulf of mexico for offshore engineering applications

AU - Panchang, Vijay

AU - Jeong, Chan Kwon

AU - Demirbilek, Zeki

PY - 2013/1/1

Y1 - 2013/1/1

N2 - The 2004-2008 hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) saw several exceedances of what was regarded, prior to that period, as the 100-year significant wave heights (SWHs) that are used for the design of offshore oil and gas facilities. As a result, these facilities sustained considerable damage and disrupted U.S. energy supplies. The wave climatology in the GOM is therefore studied in detail. A 51-year database of SWHs was constructed by using a combination of wind and wave models, and both individual wave heights and statistical measures were validated, to the extent possible, using buoy data. Analyses of the modeled data show that there is an increasing trend in the annual maximum SWHs in the eastern part of the GOM; the maximum trend is approximately 5.6 cm/year, which is of the same magnitude as that reported for the U.S. west coast. The western part; on the other hand, shows a decreasing trend. The maximum estimated 100-year SWHs (denoted by SWH100) are 19.1 m, 22.6m and 26.7m for the Gumbel, Weibull, and the GEV distributions, respectively. The estimates obtained here using the Weibull distribution are comparable to those obtained independently by API (API—American Petroleum Institute, 2007, “Interim Guidance on Hurricane Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico,” API Bulletin No. 2INT-MET). However, the use of objective criteria to identify the optimal distribution suggests that the GEV estimates are to be preferred if the engineer wishes to emphasize the upper tail where extremes are likely to occur. The maximum increase in the SWH100 due to the 2004-2008 season is of the order of 0.9m to 2.7m (depending as the distribution). Information generated here is intended to supplement the design recommendations provided by API (American Petroleum Institute, 2007, “Interim Guidance on Hurricane Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico,” API Bulletin No. 2INT-MET).

AB - The 2004-2008 hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) saw several exceedances of what was regarded, prior to that period, as the 100-year significant wave heights (SWHs) that are used for the design of offshore oil and gas facilities. As a result, these facilities sustained considerable damage and disrupted U.S. energy supplies. The wave climatology in the GOM is therefore studied in detail. A 51-year database of SWHs was constructed by using a combination of wind and wave models, and both individual wave heights and statistical measures were validated, to the extent possible, using buoy data. Analyses of the modeled data show that there is an increasing trend in the annual maximum SWHs in the eastern part of the GOM; the maximum trend is approximately 5.6 cm/year, which is of the same magnitude as that reported for the U.S. west coast. The western part; on the other hand, shows a decreasing trend. The maximum estimated 100-year SWHs (denoted by SWH100) are 19.1 m, 22.6m and 26.7m for the Gumbel, Weibull, and the GEV distributions, respectively. The estimates obtained here using the Weibull distribution are comparable to those obtained independently by API (API—American Petroleum Institute, 2007, “Interim Guidance on Hurricane Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico,” API Bulletin No. 2INT-MET). However, the use of objective criteria to identify the optimal distribution suggests that the GEV estimates are to be preferred if the engineer wishes to emphasize the upper tail where extremes are likely to occur. The maximum increase in the SWH100 due to the 2004-2008 season is of the order of 0.9m to 2.7m (depending as the distribution). Information generated here is intended to supplement the design recommendations provided by API (American Petroleum Institute, 2007, “Interim Guidance on Hurricane Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico,” API Bulletin No. 2INT-MET).

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85016081085&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85016081085&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1115/1.4023205

DO - 10.1115/1.4023205

M3 - Article

VL - 135

SP - 1

EP - 15

JO - Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering

JF - Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering

SN - 0892-7219

IS - 3

ER -