A layered Dempster-Shafer approach to scenario construction and analysis

Antonio Sanfilippo, Bob Baddeley, Christian Posse, Paul Whitney

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The ability to support creation and parallel analysis of competing scenarios is perhaps the greatest single challenge for today's intelligence analysis systems. Dempster-Shafer theory provides an evidentiary reasoning methodology for scenario construction and analysis that offers potential advantages when compared to other approaches such as Bayesian nets as it places less conceptual load on the analyst by not requiring the complete specification of joint probability distributions. This paper presents a method that can further reduce the conceptual load by taking advantage of hierarchically structured indicators. We present a novel interface for this layered, Dempster-Shafer evidentiary reasoning approach and demonstrate the utility of this interface with reference to analysis problems focusing on comparing distinct hypotheses.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationISI 2007
Subtitle of host publication2007 IEEE Intelligence and Security Informatics
Pages95-102
Number of pages8
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2007
EventISI 2007: 2007 IEEE Intelligence and Security Informatics - New Brunswick, NJ, United States
Duration: 23 May 200724 May 2007

Publication series

NameISI 2007: 2007 IEEE Intelligence and Security Informatics

Conference

ConferenceISI 2007: 2007 IEEE Intelligence and Security Informatics
CountryUnited States
CityNew Brunswick, NJ
Period23/5/0724/5/07

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Keywords

  • Analysis of competing hypotheses
  • Bayesian networks
  • Dempster-Shafer theory
  • Evidence-based reasoning

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Science(all)
  • Control and Systems Engineering

Cite this

Sanfilippo, A., Baddeley, B., Posse, C., & Whitney, P. (2007). A layered Dempster-Shafer approach to scenario construction and analysis. In ISI 2007: 2007 IEEE Intelligence and Security Informatics (pp. 95-102). [4258680] (ISI 2007: 2007 IEEE Intelligence and Security Informatics).